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0 pointspklausler10y ago0 comments

My original point stands. We haven't observed vN-B probes. This negative result is useful in a Bayesian way; it makes it less likely that the galaxy is full of tech civilizations, and makes other possibilities more likely, including several that you mentioned in a needlessly belligerent fashion.

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fergussimpson10y ago

Ah, but take a look at this chart:

https://xkcd.com/1633/

For anything more than 10^6 km away and less than 10 metres in size, we just wouldn't see it. We have only just noticed some enormous lumps on Ceres, and it seems a whole planet has evaded detection until now.

I don't think it's particularly likely we will find a vN probe. But to consider their non-detection to be of statistical significance is, I think, an overestimation of our technological capabilities.

pklauslerOP10y ago

vN-B probes are not passive objects. They would have observable effects from mining and propulsion, at least.

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