> So then you agree that returning to historic real rates would require the Fed to do something currently unthinkable -- ~1% rather than 0.25%?
No, for three reasons.
(1) A limited sample problem; the present circumstances are nearly historically unprecedented. When the only post-WWII comparable in inflation terms is in the mid-1950s (and, conveniently, its also very roughly comparable in at least headline unemployment terms, though other employment measures may not look similar), and that's deep in the Bretton Woods period which puts entirely different constraints on the effects of (and thus the calculus feeding in to) monetary policy, you've really got no good comparison in history.
(2) The current effective federal funds rates (what was around 1% in the 1950s period with similar inflation) is 0.37%, not 0.25% (The current target rate is 0.25%-0.50%, and the actual effective rate happens to be right in the center of that target range.)
(3) Prior to the recent jobs report, which showed gains at a slower rate than anticipated, most predictions were for a July increase in the target rate, possibly followed by another in September. After the recent jobs report, predictions are mixed, with an increase by September seeming commonly predicted, with some possibility of a July increase still on the table. Raising the target from its current level (which, again, isn't 0.25%, but 0.25%-0.50%) isn't "unthinkable", in fact, it seems to be what everyone is thinking.