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0 pointsdragonwriter9y ago0 comments

> The last time unemployment was this low, the Fed had rates near 5%

Well, leaving aside looking at current rates rather than leading indicators (since, while problematic, its a lot more convenient), the time you were referencing with a ~5% Fed funds rate also had inflation rates near 5%, not hovering around 1% (like now) after more than a year of being substantially below 1%.

> and yet raising them to 0.25% is considered shocking, even with inflation very low

The Fed raises rates to control inflation. With low inflation, you expect low rates. It also lowers rates to improve employment, but with virtually no inflation, there's little reason for tightening the money supply.

The last time inflation was this low this long -- in the mid 1950s -- the effective Fed Funds rate was also quite low, though a bit higher than now (around 1%, rather than 0.37% now).

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SilasX9y ago

>The last time inflation was this low this long -- in the mid 1950s -- the effective Fed Funds rate was also quite low, though a bit higher than now (around 1%, rather than 0.37% now).

So then you agree that returning to historic real rates would require the Fed to do something currently unthinkable -- ~1% rather than 0.25%?

Edit: Also consider what a shift of 0.75% does on the implied price of a house when mortgage rates are at 3.75%:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/current-interest-r...

dragonwriterOP9y ago

> So then you agree that returning to historic real rates would require the Fed to do something currently unthinkable -- ~1% rather than 0.25%?

No, for three reasons.

(1) A limited sample problem; the present circumstances are nearly historically unprecedented. When the only post-WWII comparable in inflation terms is in the mid-1950s (and, conveniently, its also very roughly comparable in at least headline unemployment terms, though other employment measures may not look similar), and that's deep in the Bretton Woods period which puts entirely different constraints on the effects of (and thus the calculus feeding in to) monetary policy, you've really got no good comparison in history.

(2) The current effective federal funds rates (what was around 1% in the 1950s period with similar inflation) is 0.37%, not 0.25% (The current target rate is 0.25%-0.50%, and the actual effective rate happens to be right in the center of that target range.)

(3) Prior to the recent jobs report, which showed gains at a slower rate than anticipated, most predictions were for a July increase in the target rate, possibly followed by another in September. After the recent jobs report, predictions are mixed, with an increase by September seeming commonly predicted, with some possibility of a July increase still on the table. Raising the target from its current level (which, again, isn't 0.25%, but 0.25%-0.50%) isn't "unthinkable", in fact, it seems to be what everyone is thinking.

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