Interesting. That led me to ask my original question which is how many employees that represents, which led me to [1] which states:
> According to U.S. Census Bureau data, employer firms with fewer than 500 workers employed 48.4 percent of private sector payrolls in 2011, and employer firms with fewer than 100 workers employed 34.3 percent, and those with less than 20 workers employed 17.6 percent.
which is in line with my memory at the high end (the US is 50% small and 50% large) but fairly surprising at the low end (nearly 20% < 20 employees).
It seems like nearly any ~100 person company is totally addressable without conversation in terms of cost. At 500, it seems possible to go direct to Vanguard et al. (is that a misconception?). But what fraction of the 34%/~100 employee companies would provide a 401k?
The total population is approximately 50M employees, so that on its own seems sizable, I just don't know how to extrapolate that to "and would provide a 401k" (but I know you've thought about this a lot more!). Apparently, tons of employers do! 80% of all employees in the US and 90% of those at >500 firms [2].
Color me surprised. I had a vision of a vast mom and pop sea (~1 person per firm), dotted with retail / fast food chains all too resistant to offer 401k plans at all. As someone asked elsewhere: who's your competition / who are these folks using as providers? (It can't all just be Vanguard / Fidelity).
[1] http://sbecouncil.org/about-us/facts-and-data/
[2] http://www.americanbenefitscouncil.org/pub/e613e1b6-f57b-136...
