Source: Adapted from “Design and Code Inspections to Reduce Errors in Program Development” (Fagan 1976), Software Defect Removal (Dunn 1984), “Software Process Improvement at Hughes Aircraft” (Humphrey, Snyder, and Willis 1991), “Calculating the Return on Investment from More Effective Requirements Management” (Leffingwell 1997), “Hughes Aircraft’s Widespread Deployment of a Continuously Improving Software Process” (Willis et al. 1998), “An Economic Release Decision Model: Insights into Software Project Management” (Grady 1999), “What We Have Learned About Fighting Defects” (Shull et al. 2002), and Balancing Agility and Discipline: A Guide for the Perplexed (Boehm and Turner 2004).

Joel on Software also has a convincing narrative on the subject. Therefore I'm not in a big hurry to replace the image, though I will put it on my todo-list.