You could be right, the current situation is unsettled, so I'm personally reluctant to predict anything much. The argument for Mono seems to boil down to the MS teams not having enough capacity to get .NET Core production-ready for mobile whilst doing everything else.
I'm going to be learning ASP.NET Core, but not even think about possible production use until after the next release. We will probably continue to avoid .NET for mobile, and I would not consider Mono for any other use case.