undefined | Better HN

0 pointsjimjimjim9y ago0 comments

so, what's the next market/eco-system?

mobiles are mature products and the players are strictly in cash-cow or market share mode. nothing of importance is changing.

I've got an iphone se and an iphone 4 and you can't tell me that's the most they can do for 6 years of product development by one of the richest companies in the world. (yes i know that it's faster with more a and more b and more c etc)

Apple needs to drip feed improvements over the next x years to keep sales up so we can't expect anything game changing.

"The Others" are trying this and that but nothing seems to be sticking, probably not able to drive consumer desire enough.

so if nothing is happening, what is the post-phone next-big-thing to get into?

0 comments

chubot9y ago

IoT and VR are the obvious technologies that have been introduced after smart phones. They both have significant obstacles in addition to the significant potential.

I won't pretend to know how things will pan out -- I agree with the idea that inventing the future is easier than predicting it.

I'd like to hear some contrarian thinking against IoT and VR. And maybe a list of "next big things" that weren't. Clean tech might be one of them. I recall some pre-www hype by Bill Gates about the "CD-ROM business", which seems to have been less of a business than a cheap distribution medium. Flip cameras were a blip.

This definitely applies: http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html

"Live in the future and build what seems interesting"

People trying to jump on trends are usually too late, because 1) they pick the wrong trend due to lack of fundamental understanding, and 2) It takes years to develop true expertise.

The people really profiting from deep learning now were toiling in obscurity 10 years ago. And plenty of people picked a line of AI research 10 years ago that has already fallen out of favor. There's no free lunch: risk and reward go hand in hand.

joakleaf9y ago

Super slick AR glasses... If they ever arrive.

davnicwil9y ago

Yes, agreed on this. Just for fun, I'll make a prediction on timelines so I can look back on this in 5 years and see how it played out (and probably laugh at myself):

Closed VR headsets (maybe some AR, but still bulky headsets) for the next couple of years, with moderate adoption amongst gadget lovers, enough of a market for lots of investment and R&D, but ultimately never make it mainstream.

In around 5 years' time, with miniaturisation + battery improvements, the tech eventually evolves into a light, practical and nice-looking AR glasses form-factor which does achieve mainstream adoption and becomes ubiquitous - possibly even replacing the glass-slab smartphone as the primary mobile computing device for a majority of people.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse