Self driving cars potentially solve all that by optimizing limited infrastructure and standardizing driving behavior. It has the potential to make cities that are bursting at the seams (like Beijing) much more livable and viable. Couple that with an authoritarian government that can dictate rules much more easily, I predict that self driving cars will be a thing in China much faster than in the west (even if much of the tech still comes from the west).
The same problems exist in metropolitan areas in US as well, like Bay Area, NYC, Chicago, etc. although to a less degree than those in China. In Bay Area, people are so exhausted by long-commute driving. Check how jammed the traffic is in 101, 880, 580, 237, etc. Bart and CalTrain's coverages are pretty limited. With self driving cars, I bet plenty of people will quit driving by themselves for the commute. Imagine one can read, relax, read a book, or even work in the car, instead of sitting behind the wheel for 2 hours a day.
- Drivers in Beijing drive slowly when there's heavy rain
- The sheer number of cars
- Drivers in Beijing advance into traffic-light controlled intersections even when the path ahead of them is blocked, causing a junction to get blocked up, even when all lanes leading away from it
I'm not sure what the other causes were (I heard that road space had just been reduced by the addition of a bus lane on the third ring road). I'm not sure what made that day much much worse than others (and it wasn't just me - I had a friend report a similar speed coming from a different part of the city).
I really wish Beijing had yellow boxes, and strong enforcement of not-stopping-in-junctions, like in London: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/red-routes/rules-of-red-rou....
I wish even more that the problem of humans needing to drive were solved.
But I'm not sure "Self driving cars are much more valuable to China than the US" is true. Each has a similar number of cars overall. China might skew more towards urban. But the cost for a full-time driver in China is 15%-25% of what it would be in the US, so the amount of GDP replaced by self-driving cars would be higher in the US, no?
Moreover, the lack of parking won't be solved by self-driving cars alone. People who can afford their own car will need to be persuaded to use car-sharing services instead. Without this, people will still want their cars to be near where they sleep, meaning that unused cars will still be jamming up the city whilst unused.
I'm guessing that you haven't driven anywhere near New York City or Boston. I've seen my fair share of drivers backing up or driving on the part of the road they're not supposed to just because they missed their exit. Someone said I've done that myself, but I'll need to see proof.
I agree that technology for society in general make us better of over time, but society consists of individuals who don't necessarily benefit from this. In fact 12 million jobs are in danger of being lost to automated cars. How are they going to benefit from that?
I'd have said, hopefully the world gets basic income and then a full leisure society sorted out. But honestly, not feeling optimistic right now. The Trumpoids and Brexiteers voted to get their makework back. They won't get it, the economics will make sure of that. But they probably will get unemployed.
Jobs are going to be lost anyways, whether from cars or from a different technology.
Are you arguing the problem is that people aren't able to continue to do trivial things which technology can easily replace them at? Or that they will not have a relevant skill / source of income?
If the former than we should give hoes and scythes back to 90% of the population and get rid of agricultural machinery. If the later - it's a problem that needs to be addressed one way or another, self-driving cars are really a minor detail here..
Step 2 is on the TBD. We'll let you know when we promise. Just around the corner really. We promise.
I'm serious about step 1 though. Should be preparing now.
It's a fact of life that while accidents from ordinary drivers go unnoticed (ironically because they are so frequent), car crashes from self-driving cars will get covered extensively by the media, at least for the short term.
All this means that it will be a tough regulatory environment for self-driving cars in the US. In China, the government has more power to create regulatory policies around self-driving cars that take a long-term view without having to worry as much about lawsuits and other concerns.
Perhaps the fear of seeing the Chinese companies "getting there first" with self-driving cars will be an impetus for US regulators to create policies that are encourage the development of self-driving cars.
Wait, isn't that what traffic police are for? Sometimes I wish speed limits were universally removed so that police will be forced to enforce the other 99.99% of traffic laws more strictly.
Government is way ahead of you there. The California DMV has been licensing self-driving cars for on-highway test for several years now. 19 companies have signed up. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration had their meetings on regulations for self-driving cars last year and this year, and the proposed regulations are out. Basic rule: the manufacturer is responsible for all accidents of self-driving cars. Google and the big car companies are on board with this. Tesla has grudgingly accepted it.
How much more friendly of an environment do they need? The NHTSA has guidelines, and wants answers, but it hasn't shown a lot of prior restraint in this space.
These companies are slow to move because they know full well that if they kill enough drivers, their stock will fall so much that they'll be de-listed from any legitimate securities market in a matter of days.
This is a complicated space with a lot of new liabilities and civil responsibilities to consider, it _should_ move slow.
Like flying, if anyone could build an airplane and fly it, flying would be more dangerous then driving. It's the FAA which keeps these things in check.
For those who are curious, two guys just did a motorcycle race through rush hour traffic in China [1]. It gives a good idea what the road conditions are like.
I guess the reason they haven't done it is that humans are required to be inside the car for now.
In China, lacking the rule of law, it'll just be a calamity.
Does it takes just a hire to compete against all Google's patents?
