But you are actually making my point for me. Opportunity cost is a vacuous argument.
Everything you do has an opportunity cost. That's not a risk, it's just a consequence of the laws of physics.
Maybe publishing would have counted as taking a risk for the reasons you cite, but Newton resisted publishing for a very long time, so he was actually avoiding that risk. So once again it really seems to me that Newton is not a good example of the merits of taking risks. (Quite the contrary in fact.)