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0 pointssimonh9y ago0 comments

We aren't post-brexit yet. That's more than 2 years away.

0 comments

I should have been clearer, the analysts said there would be an immediate meltdown in the UK economy after the brexit vote if it was leave.

That forecast was completely wrong, the opposite has happened.

As it's widely been reported in the UK, in both lefty and righty papers, I'm surprised you've failed to see it. It's been mentioned every time we get a positive growth figure, or an unemployment fall, or whatever.

TillE9y ago

Yes, predicting fuzzy emotional reactions to uncertainty is a lot harder than the analyzing the clear, solid legal and economic changes which are to come.

simonhOP9y ago

As has been mentioned on this thread before you posted, those analyses were based on the announced policy that article 50 would be triggered immediately. It wasn't. Long term Brexit is absolutely going to be disastrous for the UK economy, unless parliament can get us on to a soft-brexit EEA membership track.

The tragedy is that the British economy was going well through the beginning of 2016 and after a bumpy road immediately after the vote that momentum has held up over the last 6 months. That won't help us if we really do crash out of the EU hard.

Ntrails9y ago

> Long term Brexit is absolutely going to be disastrous for the UK economy, unless parliament can get us on to a soft-brexit EEA membership track.

No. It might be. I'll even accept will probably be. You haven't got a clue, I haven't got a clue. Professors of economics at respected universities don't agree, in house analysts at top financial institutions don't agree. At best you can say that heavily politically influenced bodies tend to agree.

I'm fine with you stating an opinion on this stuff, I have my own expectations (chunky period of inflation and stagnant growth at best) - but I'm awfully tired of people selling forecasts as facts

zigzigzag9y ago

those analyses were based on the announced policy that article 50 would be triggered immediately

Then they were naive analyses rather than expert analyses weren't they?

Did anyone seriously think Cameron would stay on to implement Brexit? Only someone utterly clueless about British politics could have thought that - it was obvious there'd be a leadership change in the event of a leave vote.

It is also obvious that Article 50 was deliberately botched, the guy who wrote it have said so explicitly. 2 years is a stupid choice for the amount of time available, designed specifically to discourage people from trying to leave. So assuming it'd be invoked immediately anyway was a very bad assumption.

No matter how you slice it, the so-called "experts" were completely wrong and excuses don't cut it.

andy_ppp9y ago

In the mean time lots of money to be made raising and lowering the price of the pound based on various announcements.

I'm writing a bot that shorts on Donald Trumps tweeting company names...

misnome9y ago

And, in fact, the talk the past few days from Phillip Hammond/the leaks is that there will be a collapse in the economy ("short term" is a euphemism that can cover just about anything. Short term, the sun will expand and melt the earth).

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse