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0 pointslazaroclapp9y ago0 comments

Fair enough, but you really consider isolationism, trade barriers and anti-immigrant rhetoric either significantly more feasible than or preferable to trying to improve wealth and opportunity distribution? Do you think forcing companies to bring manufacturing to the U.S. and fire foreign workers will result in anything else than automation, loss of foreign markets for U.S. companies and even further poverty for these communities, absent any other measure or the political will to help them? It seems to me just as hard to assist them under nationalism as under globalism, and globalism still has at the least the potential of doing better. For my part my current view is that I should try to both champion globalism and try to make it do better in whatever small sphere of influence I have.

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rfrank9y ago

Yes, I think trade barriers are both more feasible and preferable. I perceive automation as a constant, it's happening no matter what. Enforcing a border adjustment tax is easier than trying to remove every international tax loophole a la the double Irish. How is reshoring not trying to improve wealth and opportunity distribution, just with the benefactor being Americans and not the factory town in SEA or Central/South America? How does it not "have the potential to do better"? Someone keeping or re-gaining a job in their field is better. Those people contributing to their cities and towns in the form of taxes and other spending makes them better. I work in electronics manufacturing, and people are generally pretty excited about the potential changes.

lazaroclappOP9y ago

You assume the rest of the world will remain open to you as you slam the door in their faces. At best you might end up in a situation where you don't have to compete with Shenzhen in your local market, but where all other markets are closed to you and open to them. Except now you won't even have access to collaborating with Shenzhen and other significant electronics hubs. I think you underestimate how much wealth moves into the U.S. because of globalization and has since the early 20th century. Now, you can argue that you won't go completely closed, but I think you will lose out in proportion to how much you close things, specially if you do it to the point that other countries find themselves needing to retaliate with their own trade barriers and alternative trade treaties, and even more so if at the same time you are also restricting flow of talent into the U.S.

rfrank9y ago

> Now, you can argue that you won't go completely closed but I think you will lose out in proportion to how much you close things, specially if you do it to the point that other countries find themselves needing to retaliate with their own trade barriers and alternative trade treaties...

I agree with you the most here, and think it's true that unless a trade policy of that nature is implemented very carefully it could easily cause more harm than good. On the other hand, I think concerns about a complete walling off of collaboration/trade, or US manufacturers suddenly becoming unaware of international markets are overstated.

Manufacturers who have stayed alive already compete aggressively on price, which for them is more about materials management, relationships with suppliers (NXP, Samtec, Maxim, whoever), and process optimization. Component cost varies pretty dramatically by region, and how effectively a US based shop can navigate that is a big determining factor in how competitive they are with China/Mexico/etc.

From that perspective, most of the burden of something like a border adjustment tax is primarily on their customers, especially if they only do mid or low volume / high complexity runs (think medical/telecom/some consumer stuff). High volume / low complexity isn't something most US shops are geared for these days [1], so manufacturing will likely remain overseas and see a price increase in line with whatever policy change occurs. That probably won't hold true for high volume / high complexity (smartphones, etc) where cost of total assembly is higher. That seems to align with all the chatter about Foxconn, Samsung, Sharp, Toyota, etc. investing in US operations. [2][3]

The risks you mention are absolutely real, and my biggest hope at this stage is that any proposed changes are drafted and discussed openly, and given ample time for public review and comment.

1. http://www.assemblymag.com/articles/83764-managing-high-mix-...

2. https://www.macrumors.com/2017/02/08/sharp-lead-on-7-billion...

3. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/12/business/trump-asia-aliba...

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rfrank9y ago

lazaroclappOP9y ago

rfrank9y ago

The risks you mention are absolutely real, and my biggest hope at this stage is that any proposed changes are drafted and discussed openly, and given ample time for public review and comment.

1. http://www.assemblymag.com/articles/83764-managing-high-mix-...

2. https://www.macrumors.com/2017/02/08/sharp-lead-on-7-billion...

3. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/12/business/trump-asia-aliba...

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