But I'm still skeptical because HEVC might be more widespread with hardware decoders everywhere and people might just not care enough to move to the new standard. Unless MPEG-LA exploits its dominance really bad with license fees, then we can expect MPEG codecs to die off. Although I think x264 will still live.
[1]: https://fosdem.org/2017/schedule/event/om_av1/attachments/sl...
(4th slide. This codec will be standardized after the experiments are removed and it is frozen to test software.)