There are some reasonable bets here. Russia has a vested interest in climate change... their biggest liability is cold and ice, a rise in sea level and 5 degree bump in average temps would give them a much bigger role in agriculture and shipping. Add that to the petrodollars from selling their oil reserves and you've got a game changer for them economically.

China probably loses at least temporarily in the runaway climate change event due to destroyed cropland and refugees. The U.S. has exposure on both sides so it's a little more moot for us. We'll lose quite a lot of biodiversity, and may take a big hit to agriculture but we're banking petrodollars and have so much upside when people move to virtual reality we'll be fine. If we were horribly exposed Dems/Reps wouldn't be split on the issue, as clueless as they are.

And of course there are the Saudis and corporate/investment petro interests you allude to.

Russia/Saud/Exxon vs China with U.S. on the sidelines... not sure who wins there.

I really hope we can transition to sustainable energy, but there are big players that stand to gain from delaying it until the reserves are burnt. It's not a bet I would take but I understand why people would bet on there being plenty of feet sticking out to trip up Tesla and co.