I think factors beyond the storage algorithm are pretty important to consider when thinking about storing data that's important to your business. To your specific point though:
1. Amazon claims 99.999999999% durability of objects over a year.
2. I store 1EB of data with an object size of 4MB for a year (so 250,000,000,000 objects).
3. I can expect to lose 250 objects in a year, or 1GB.
Now to my experience:
I have stored in excess of that amount of data in S3. I have lost considerably more data -- solely because of data losses internal to S3 -- that these numbers would suggest. It was a tolerable amount of data loss, I didn't curse Amazon's name or swear vengeance, but it was definitely not 1 gig.
The standard S3 SLA provides credits only based on uptime. There is no mention of durability whatsoever. That tells you that Amazon is not willing to put their money where there mouth is on their 99.999999999% durability claims. The reality is the number is a design target, not an operational guarantee.