China will be in a similar spot soon. Eventually all of the world will be where they are.
The things and lessons they learn and discover will be useful to other mature economies soon enough.
The headway will make them leaders in innovating in this area of the economy. Automation will only keep on advancing and displacing jobs --Japan's workforce and jobs are in sync in this regard and if they thread it right, the reduction in human jobs will diminish with the number of able workers.
Maybe things aren't as bad as people fear on either side.
1. Employers: we need more immigration, not enough workers (willing to work for the shitty wages I want to pay).
2. Workers: automation is kill all the jobs (that pay well, but require few skills).
If we really needed more workers why wouldn't we incentivize our own citizens to have kids instead of spending that money on refugees and immigrants?
Somewhere along the like that seems to have been thrown out the window and the idea of a 'consumer economy' took its place. Now we have a model of low education low wage consumers who keep the economy going by buying endless plastic junk. Perpetually distracted with entertainment and unhealthy unsustainable lifestyles.
I think Japan is making a wise choice.
If you want to know about immigration policy in Japan, you need look no further Japan's ministry of foreign affairs website. For example, here are the categories where you can get a long term visa [0]
You will notice there is a points system [1]. You need 70 points to get in. A degree gives you 10 points. A salary of ~$100K gives you 40 points. Being under 30 gives you 15 points. Having 5 years of experience gives you 10 points. N1 on JLTP gives you 15 points.
I mean, it's ridiculous. And this is a 5 year visa with relaxed permanent residence requirements, ability to sponsor your parents, ability to work in any field (even jobs that aren't related to your skill set!!!). The list goes on!
And if by some incredibly unfortunate circumstance you can't qualify for that, there are still over 10 categories where you basically only need a relevant university degree and a job offer for a 3 year visa.
And if that isn't enough, you can start a company in Japan with about ~$50K and sponsor a business visa for yourself.
My wife is Japanese and I'm here on a spousal visa. The application process took 1 week and was free. I am also eligible for relaxed permanent residence status.
Seriously, compare this to your home country and then come back and tell me that Japan doesn't want immigration.
Now if you want to know why Japan doesn't have a lot of immigration, it's because it is difficult for foreigners to live here if they can't speak Japanese and/or they can't accept Japanese culture. But as far as the government is concerned, the red carpet has been rolled out for a long time. If you have an established company in many foreign countries and wish to open a branch office in Japan (so that you can transfer people here), the government will even give you free assistance!
[0] - http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/visa/long/index.html [1] - http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/pdf/point_calculat...
As a simple example, Japan invited a bunch of Filipino nurses to work in Japan for a while, and they could stay if they completed the Japanese national nursing exam... in Japanese:
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/pinoyabroad/253140/13-pi...
Surprise surprise, the pass rate was 8%, and many of those who passed have returned home:
http://news.abs-cbn.com/global-filipino/04/13/16/some-filipi...
Instead, there's ever-increasing abuse of various "trainee" and "language student" visa programs to cycle in and out what amounts to indentured labor, with zero prospects for actually staying in the country:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/travel/welcome-to-th...
The reality of the situation is that it is very hard to live here if you are a foreigner with that kind of job. In the town where I live something like 22 of the 130 or so foreigners who live here are Filipino nurses. I've met some who have stayed for 4-5 years, but most cycle through pretty quickly -- not victims of immigration policy, but more victims of not being able to live and work in Japan without speaking Japanese. My wife used to work at the retirement home nearby and it is a hard job. It is completely unrealistic to bring in foreigners to do it unless they have extensive experience with the Japanese language and Japanese customs.
The same can also be said for other kinds of "cultural" visas. I've only ever met 1 person on a cultural visa and her stay was a disaster. I know some people on the city council and they decided never to do it again.
As for migrant workers... or even non-migrant workers who are willing to farm. I have no idea what the government intends to do, but it's getting desperate out my way. I live in Shizuoka prefecture and we're losing something like 10% of our population every year and nobody wants to farm. I've met a couple from England who got visas to farm here and they have done very well by renting land (which you can get virtually for free). But I agree that something needs to be done.
So, no, it's not nirvana by any stretch of the imagination. But I think the image that people have (fuelled by stories like the one that started this thread) is grossly misaligned with reality.
[0] http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/02/03/17/japan-to-extend-st...
- I don't have a recognized degree (I do, but .. it's complicated)
- I never had, nor will for the foreseeable future, reach 100k USD (DE doesn't pay like that, neither will SG in the future based on sources like Glassdoor etc.)
- I'm over 30
I guess what I'm trying to say is: For me the list you provided is merely a curiosity and doesn't feel like I would have a good way to migrate to Japan if I'd like to. It was trivial for Singapore. "Incredibly unfortunate circumstances" seem to imply that you believe that nearly anyone can check all the boxes. Which for the salary requirement alone seems rather insane from my European point of view.
That said: I have no clue about immigration requirements for Germany, so I cannot compare Japan to my home country. DE might be worse.
The reason why foreigners have trouble accepting Japanese culture is because work culture in Japan is so incredibly toxic except in rare circumstances that you don't bother adapting and you don't bother learning.
That is incredibly high for Japanese standard... Even Google JP engineers might not be paid for that much, and they are the top of the food chain. Most engineers I know, their salary is around 40k-50k a year. Apparently, Japan doesn't want below exceptional engineers in their country, which is a fair requirement, but hardly a welcoming one.
My commentary with support from that article follows:
A country with the population of Japan has no chance of maintaining a higher absolute GDP than countries with multiples of their population and more land to expand population. A policy to try to maintain their status in the world in terms of GDP is just silly.
If, however, Japan is more interested in the well-being of their population than some sort of international power-play, then this is the route to go. Population growth has no correlation to GDP per capita, so what's the point of increasing immigration of low-skilled workers? The upside is minimal, and the potential downside is unknown and unbounded.
I've been living in Japan for a little over 2 years now, and haven't talked to anyone who is worried about the long-term prospects of Japan's economy. There are structural changes that can and probably should be made, as outlined in the link above, but the country is not on some death-spiral like a lot of Western media would have you believe.
Is Japan a magical land of far-advanced technology, delicious food, safe and clean cities, beautiful countrysides, and amazing public transportation? Actually, yes; the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more.
Is the technology really that far advanced. I understand it was in the 80s maybe? None of the devices I have are made by Japanese companies. None of the software I use is developed in Japan primarily. My car is but that's about it, but I picked it because of reliability not because of high tech features.
Granted this has been slowly changing because of startups spinning up as well as foreign company HQs. Still, wages for developers in Japan are terribly low in most scenarios.
> the "far-advanced technology" part just doesn't extend to mass-market consumer electronics in the same way any more.
Japan has leading technology companies in many industries that consumers just don't care about.
China may surpass Japan in the automation/AI sphere. Lots of young, English-speaking, western-educated workers, plus the PRC has already innovated so much in manufacturing, shipbuilding, etc., and an ecosystem willing to splash cash on daring startups (albeit a lot of that is state funding, and you need CCP connections to come up in the Chinese startup world) in ways that leave Japan in the dust. Look at how Nvidia is working in China, look at the rise of Aliyun, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud.
The only Japanese companies I know that are geared for automation for the new economy are companies like Mujin, LeapMind and Preferred Networks.
As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980, is nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040.
I've worked closely with one of these companies... Perhaps they were just not suited to the project we were working on, but I found them quite dis-organized, lacking in focus and mostly buzzwords and fakery. Kind of sad.
I really can't see, at least the company I worked with, as "the future of automation"... a lot of it just seems to be neat but impractical toys.
You can't just drop an anecdote like that without naming and shaming.
I think they have done an admirable job to be the no. 3 economy in the world despite neo-liberal economics --as they say, even Fukuyama is no longer a Fukuyama-ist and I think they are working hard at making a soft landing for their post neo-liberal economy, whatever shape that takes.
We all know consumerism only gets us so far and what lies beyond is still amorphous. They're trying to give it some shape.
Like before, won't software and open collaboration merely be an aspect of automation? Who's open-sourced their driverless car tech - anyone with wheels on the ground and a car you can buy? Some advanced mechatronics will be required to fill a lot of voids in the manual labour space. Whose battery tech and engineering prowess will we be using in these vehicles and machines? Japan's?
> As a side note, the fact that Japan has managed zero-growth despite a rapidly shrinking, aging population; almost zero immigration; and roughly the same economic policy as from the 1980s.
That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good.
> I wonder what Japan is going to do when the population decline really gets in gear around 2040.
With freed up housing and resources? Probably get better pay, make more children and ultimately kick off a new cycle of growth. A bit hard when you're in your 40's and still living with your parents...who are still working at retirement age.
Ah, but that's on the hardware side. Japan is excellent at hardware, its education system spits out lots of factory workers. But I have a hunch that AI and automation, in the future, will emphasizing hardware a bit less (since China/Taiwan/Korea has gotten so good at efficient manufacturing), and refocus towards software--that may be where the growth will be. Since you mentioned Tesla Motors, I will note that they hire a lot of software engineers, and it's not a 100% proprietary locked-down atmosphere on the software side; open source collaboration is encouraged. Tesla even open sourced some of their patents, though I will admit I think Elon Musk's attitude towards open source software can be a bit duplicitous.
> That should be praise, no? I mean, aspects of sexism and odd views about social hierarchy can go in the trash, but their productivity is still very good.
Haha...accidentally several words there. I've fixed it.
I know that's neither here nor there, however.
Although Japan was once an imperial power, its reconciliation with its past has not included a transition to a multicultural post-colonial state promoted by intellectuals and practiced by widespread (and largely economic) migration from former colonies to the home country at the seat of power, as it has occurred in the case of most other imperial powers. The difference being, the places where this transition did take place had been colonial empires for longer, and had for centuries notions of nationhood derived from shared values more so than shared ethnicity.
And Japan is arguably paying a steep price for keeping their blood oh-so-pure: it's a society frozen in tradition and fear, with an economy in what is essentially a 20-year recession.
Making robots care for the elderly will just be another step in the dehumanisation of that society, indeed. It's the coup the grace for a generation that replaced social life with "being in the office" and love life with blow-up dolls and pornography.
While we may see "dehumanization" they don't. Where you see a pornography fetish, they see it as an extension of their sexuality. For them it's progress. They have valued tradition and will continue to do so. It's not an ephemeral value they hold.
Germany found a different path. It does not necessarily mean it's the one true path.
And, long term, all societies will face the same issues. Some sooner, some much later --but face it they will.
Most of the west has seen the same stagnation, they've just papered over it with immigration. Why would anyone care about economic growth when they are not receiving the benefits of it?
German employers' lobbying and the worsening of global economic outlook in the 1970s led to these temporary measures being made increasingly permanent, with a path to permanent residency, but not citizenship.
In the 1990s (and in a process that continues today), Germany relaxed its jus sanguinis citizenship laws, and German society, influenced by the political approaches of its western neighbors, debated profoundly about how to reconcile its historical notion of Germanness with its desire to participate and show leadership in an increasingly multicultural European Union, all the while showing proper human compassion to its decidedly different residents of foreign descent. In Germany's case, this was particularly interesting, because the German people have long been a nation split between several sovereign states, yet a shared sense of German belonging has transcended centuries of political upheaval; nonetheless the State of Germany -- in its various guises and predecessors going back before the Unification of 1871 -- has been the one polity that was always intrinsically German.
Today, this questioning of what it means to be [nation] in a classic nation-state is ongoing Sweden and beginning in Denmark; it's also causing angst in Austria and Hungary, where the recent rise in immigration (or transiting migrants) is causing conflicts with a national identity that was built -- both by domestic and foreign forces -- in the aftermath of the First World War to emphasize maximum contrast with conflicting nations who would go on to gain their own nation-states.
Japan's outlook on immigration is not entire unlike those practiced by small European states defined solely around the self-determination of a single nation bound together largely, but not exclusively, by ethnicity, shared language, and implied lineage to predecessor states somehow connected to the nation in question. It's under demographic pressure, but its past experiments with immigration have shown that widespread assimilation foreigners is out of question, and it can only import people if it's willing to re-examine what it means to be Japanese. Given their high-tech economic base, they may opt to pursue that solution instead, while less economically fortunate Eastern Europe can't pursue as much automation, and will have to opt for immigration.
Do you think it is functioning because it is diverse or diverse because it is already functioning well? Or maybe the two are just correlated and there is something else causing those two things?
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manufacturing-innovation-...
As developed nations age, there will be increasing needs for healthcare workers including those for home assistance. Since the supply of people wanting the jobs might be limited and many blue-collar workers tend to balk at taking pink-collar jobs, robots could be the intermediary that satisfies both the supply for services and demand for jobs.
Edit - why the downvotes?
Much of east Asia is very internal-looking (China was the middle kingdom for a reason). They tend to keep to themselves as a society and value their values from their perspective --not as self-critical as other societies, in some ways. It's something anathema to a number of westerners.
So of course to some people it looks like Japan (or east Asia in general) is not "sharing" in their wealth with others as your implicit agreement is kind of a non-sequitur for some people.
Going on a tangent here, but for example, in India, Dalits will at times use English but primarily western philosophy to argue their position vis a vis the dominant castes because they lend themselves better to examine these questions.
telling this as European whose wife is from China and she agrees with me that what's necessary are legal educated migrants, not illegal uneducated religious welfare migrants
Praising cultural homogeneity isn't PC.
They don't realize there are very few truly multi-cultural countries, even for most that say they are multi-cultural, multi-ethnic would be a much more accurate description. True multi-culturalism typically ends up with cultural ghettos and all the pros and cons that they bring.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15078466 and marked it off-topic.
Please don't respond to a bad comment by violating the HN guidelines yourself. Indeed, please don't respond to bad comments at all. Flag them instead:
Point 1: many migrants are not "refugees". Period.
Point 2: ok, so German children will take a long time before they start contributing -- agree. What about some untrained analphabet with a different culture, who also happens to reject working with women?
PS. Applying the label "racist" to anyone who disagrees with you has dulled its sting, I'm afraid :-)
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820480/Germany-migrant-c...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_immigration_referendum,_...
Really, it's honestly kind of freaky how often I see western media articles about how Japan needs to act now, or they're doomed to fail and their population will vanish. Yet I see nothing about Bulgaria losing 25% of its population in 25 years or Belgium needing to reevaluate its global image for fear of irrelevancy.
So, you're agreeing that Japan is on a long downward slope to economic and technological irrelevance, but you believe the average Japanese would rather accept this than immigration?
Your implicit value judgment very much reflects a Western, linear, 'progress' based view of history, one which not all cultures share.
Or more foreign residents: http://stats-japan.com/t/kiji/11639
The change is particularly visible in the larger cities: for example, it's increasingly rare to find ethnic Japanese behind the counter at a convenience store.
