undefined | Better HN

0 pointsjasonwatkinspdx8y ago0 comments

> NK isn't some rationalistic actor.

The way they're behaving is quite rational. They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term.

This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival.

Lest people think I'm engaging in apologetics, what they're doing to keep in power is reprehensible. But they're not mad men looking for a symbolic "win" at the cost of suicide.

0 comments

hodgesrm8y ago

That's assuming that NK is just building the deterrent to stay in power. Another possibility is that they would seek to increase their power against other, non-nuclear armed nations. Many of NK's historical actions such as kidnapping foreign citizens [0] or the abominable treatment of prisoners like Otto Warmbier cannot be explained simply by a rational desire for regime survival. We don't really know what their end game is.

convivialdingo8y ago

I agree completely. Contrast those rogue nations with Pakistan - who has nukes - and it's a strong argument. Pakistan regularly taunts India with the same threats and they still get megabucks in aid.

NK made it past the finish line: they have a real program and a modest delivery system. I expect they will continue to follow the same diplomatic strategy as Pakistan.

smsm428y ago

It looks like currently their estimation is that the West is too weak to oppose them and by taking a bellicose stance they can extract concessions, payments and other benefits. This is basically a blackmail/hostage situation.

cryptonector8y ago

They haven't been wrong about that in the past...

AnimalMuppet8y ago

> They looked at what happened to Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as how the new administration is seeking to tear down the Iran deal, and came to the conclusion that the US/West could not be trusted to honor a nuclear disarment deal long term.

I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

CamperBob28y ago

They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

Yes, and that's worked out great for the Kims for almost 70 years now. We haven't exactly given them an incentive to change or reform.

It's impossible to exaggerate how badly we botched our handling of Libya in particular. After watching what happened to Gaddafi, there was literally no other option for Kim besides an all-out push to develop nuclear arms.

Iran, not being a country populated exclusively by idiots, will be doing the same.

The US simply cannot be trusted regardless of what party is at the helm, and that's a huge problem for us as well as anyone we're doing international business with.

Certhas8y ago

You imply that untrustworthy, lying bullies can't be rational. Read the parent again:

> This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival.

If you're a criminal bully, then the only way to not get taken down by the bigger kids is to get nuclear weapons.

chickenfries8y ago

> They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

And US policy towards Korea has been something else?

krapp8y ago

South Korea seems to be doing just fine, and the US seems to be honest about the contempt with which it views the North Korean regime, so I don't really see the purpose of the equivocation you're trying to set, here.

1 more reply

newsmania8y ago

No they’re not. The only reason they are still there is because China wants them there. And they are being very dumb by making China angry.

Secondly treating your people like dirt is also a very bad idea. Singapore remains a monarchy while not being anything like NK. The man drives his country into the dirt for bombs when they are completely unnecessary. He could either a) treat his people better then wouldn’t need bombs, or b) keep China happy and still wouldn’t need bombs.

cryptonector8y ago

China isn't angry at NK for building nukes. They're angry because now they have to be given that the U.S. wants them to be "or else". I'm not sure that the "or else" is real, but China has a lot to lose, while NK only has Kim to lose, so I expect China will continue attempting to appear angry at NK.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

hodgesrm8y ago

convivialdingo8y ago

I agree completely. Contrast those rogue nations with Pakistan - who has nukes - and it's a strong argument. Pakistan regularly taunts India with the same threats and they still get megabucks in aid.

NK made it past the finish line: they have a real program and a modest delivery system. I expect they will continue to follow the same diplomatic strategy as Pakistan.

smsm428y ago

cryptonector8y ago

They haven't been wrong about that in the past...

AnimalMuppet8y ago

I believe that NK was untrustworthy long before the events you cite. They didn't reach a rational conclusion. They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

CamperBob28y ago

They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

Yes, and that's worked out great for the Kims for almost 70 years now. We haven't exactly given them an incentive to change or reform.

Iran, not being a country populated exclusively by idiots, will be doing the same.

The US simply cannot be trusted regardless of what party is at the helm, and that's a huge problem for us as well as anyone we're doing international business with.

Certhas8y ago

You imply that untrustworthy, lying bullies can't be rational. Read the parent again:

> This means a credible nuclear deterrent is the only way to ensure the regime's survival.

If you're a criminal bully, then the only way to not get taken down by the bigger kids is to get nuclear weapons.

chickenfries8y ago

> They always were belligerant, untrustworthy, lying bullies.

And US policy towards Korea has been something else?

krapp8y ago

1 more reply

newsmania8y ago

No they’re not. The only reason they are still there is because China wants them there. And they are being very dumb by making China angry.

cryptonector8y ago

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse