Professional money managers and speculators in general, at least in principle, more efficiently allocate capital as a result of their speculative activities. This causes overall returns to increase. In a world without money managers/other speculators, market returns would be lower overall.
The simple model: in a world without money managers/speculators, overall returns might be 2%. In a world with 1 speculator, returns might be 2.1% and that speculator might achieve returns of 4%. In a world with many speculators, they might all achieve returns of 4%, and none of them would be beating the market. They are creating value, however.
(Another reason they don't beat the market is that many of them are not trying to. The manager of my Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 fund is currently trying to beat the market. In 2040 his goal will be to minimize risk.)
The question is, if the same people who 'succeeded' are put back to the start again and play randomly with a new batch of 80 people - would they still rise to the top, or perhaps this time have worse luck.
Comparing this to the rats, the long term testing / new rounds with a new set of 80 rats (including the elite) would help determine whether these rats are the best, or if it was chance.
If I understand this correctly, the decision the rat makes is based solely on hearing a certain frequency (pattern of trading emerge), unfortunately even if this is the case - trading by patterns could be extremely risky without the common sense / experience of a real trader to see what is really happening to the market.
That said, this whole thing reads like an elaborate practical joke.
My point was, that although these can be 'indicators', you still require a human mind to determine whether the trade should be made. If it was as simple as matching patterns and trading, anyone would be able to do it.
Seriously, this is the most ingenious thing I have seen in a while.
Take a look at his satirical illustrations about BP here:
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2010-07-03/?CmtOrder=Rating&...