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0 pointslsc8y ago0 comments

So, I came of age right in the middle of the first dot-com boom. My observation is that back then, no one with money knew what they hell they were doing.

My observation during this dot-com boom is that a lot of the people who did well last round are now part of the VC infrastructure, like our own Paul Graham. My impression is that this time around, money is a lot more competent because of this.

Because this made such a huge impact on my life, I kinda want to extend it: perhaps the first round of any new technology is going to be littered with bad ideas. Perhaps that is necessary. Then perhaps those with experience can look backwards and do better next time.

I personally still think we are headed towards a second dot-com bust, but I've been saying that so long that at this point, I'm just wrong. Unquestionably, the business and money people did their jobs much more skillfully this time around than they did in the '90s.

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rflrob8y ago

> I personally still think we are headed towards a second dot-com bust, but I’ve been saying that for so long that at this point, I’m just wrong.

As a wise man once said[1], “the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent”. At some point, the tech boom will end, and probably for many of the reasons that you have been telling anyone who will listen. The hard part is forecasting precisely when it will end with any range and precision.

[1]https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

comstock8y ago

True, but their competence isn’t is science based startups. In all honesty I think that makes them in general gravitate to Bio tech plays which involve a lot of traditional Tech. The thesis is easier, but much less likely to result in high reward.

lscOP8y ago

my implication was that this is (to my knowledge) the first round of silicon valley biotech startups, and if it's like the first round of webapp startups, there will be a lot of failures, but the seeds will be planted for greater success in the next round.

My main point was "perhaps the first round failure is necessary" - of course, I weakened that with my assertion that this second tech bubble is also a bubble and bound to burst.

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