undefined | Better HN

0 pointslqdc137y ago0 comments

Problem with such use of statistics is that we underestimate black swan events.

Humans are intuitively better at it. For example, it would be impossible to predict something like 911 event with such frequentist analysis.

Also impossible to predict some sort of nuclear disaster terrorist act that never happened before and could take a million lives.

Another thing to keep in mind is the "missing life" (dying young) and quality of life after disease. That's why something like Alzheimer's seems a lot worse than heart disease.

0 comments

im3w1l7y ago

Yeah "dying of war" is much more likely than you would think by looking at what Americans died of last 10 years. The same could go for anything that happens rarely but kills a lot of people when it does.

911 was probably too few deaths to make an impact in the statistics though. You'd need something killing tens of millions of people

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse