You can run PostgreSQL on a VM just fine. You just have to manage itself. Cloud SQL comes with some upsides (zero management, spectacular HA failover capabilities) and some downsides (lack of extensions, lives on a separate network, no control over maintenance window); you have to decide what you're willing to live with.
You can set the upgrade window, but it can't be predicted. What you can control is the order — e.g. set your staging instance to "early" and production instance to "late", then hopefully staging should be upgraded first and you'll know ahead of the production upgrade if any issues arose.
[1] https://cloud.google.com/compute/docs/instances/live-migrati...