China did the same thing, and now Chinese industry is advanced enough that we will see innovation coming from China. They are already there in software -- WeChat/WePay is a really big deal and it outcompetes payment systems from American tech companies. I suspect we will soon see successful Chinese innovations in AI, semiconductors, and automobiles.
People have been saying this forever and we're still waiting for any sign of it. People love to over-simplify economics and make the big assumption that the historical progress seen in the west in previous eras is a repeatable system on a simple arc trajectory of advancement. But I personally believe it is as much a product of the local (work) culture, politics, and economic systems... not simply just a side-effect of the creation of a middle class.
Just look at Japan. They had a great period of innovation within a particular period of chaos where the old cultural rules weren't being imposed and whole new industries were developed. Which later became crippled by a variety of forces, including most notably culture and how 'elders'/successful companies are treated like gods, while upstarts became marginalized as the larger firms became politically entrenched. Now that the systems are in place the creative class has largely been stamped out.
That had little to do with Japan's particular position on some growth model but a variety of distinct local forces.
This type of thing is also not just a product of industry but also academically, which we've also seen a lack of larger sweeping innovations coming out of China, instead mostly just narrower progress within existing western thought. It's entirely possible that what China is best at is these type of things, mastering these individual existing categories, optimizing them, and working harder than anyone else at them. Rather than developing the more creative innovations which bring together disparate pieces from other areas into new ones.
That too seems to be a result of cultural and economic system... not simply their position within some predicable growth model which worked in the west.
If you are into AI you can looks up recent papers. Most of the authors are Chinese.
And yes most of the authors are studying in the US, but Trump administration are making them very difficult to work in the US, so they will all gradually return to China someday.
Is there any evidence this is true yet? I thought they were only going after 'chain migration' which has nothing to do with skilled workers? Or do you mean the rumblings about cracking down on those H1b mill companies gaming the system?
For this reason, I think we'll see some relaxation of control in China, as there has been previously.
But I guess the real challenge is having a culture of risk tolerance, and investment infrastructure etc to support it.
I used to think that as more Chinese people entered the middle class, they would demand more political rights. It's generally the bourgeoisie that does this -- they aren't poor anymore and they want respect, they resent being looked down on and the monopoly on political power held by the entrenched aristocracy (which in China would be the powerful families in the party), and so on. But that hasn't happened as far as I can tell. Maybe it's because the people in a position to successfully demand political reform aren't staying in China.
Go buy a copy of the Three-Body trilogy by Liu Cixin.
Does it? I think American payment systems are winning outside of China/USA. Of course it won the Chinese market because China makes it extremely difficult for foreign tech companies to compete.
