Tesla delivered 83,500 vehicles in the third quarter, more than expected (opens in new tab)

I will never buy from the VW group again. It's almost like people have forgotten about the whole TDI scandal. They literally lied to the world about dirty diesel. Not to mention the new class action lawsuit for both VW and Audi TSI models where they put bad engine parts into new cars.

After the TDI emissions scandal I would never support this corrupt company. Porsche, VW, or Audi - they're all corrupt and in my opinion create engines that systematically fail to keep you coming in. Look at the reimbursement schedule on the class action lawsuit - if your car's engine fails after 100,000 miles they are not paying for anything, which has personally affected me.

And just for completeness, Porsche "only" sold 55,000 cars in 2017. Tesla shipped 30%+ more automobiles in one quarter, yet there is debate about whether Tesla is a viable company and no-one is predicting the imminent demise of that tiny car company, Porsche.

Bias + old thinking dies hard, it seems.

And the funny thing is this wouldn't have happened and VW would've likely been one of the bankrupt carmakers in the future if they hadn't been caught cheating on emissions and then forced by both the US government and the public to switch to EVs.

Musk was actually one one of those asking the US government to force VW to build EVs instead of just taking a large(r) fine from them.

If VW hadn't been caught they would've likely continued to be among the very last to switch to EVs because they knew they could rely on the cheating software to pretend that their cars are super efficient and can avoid penalties against new pollution laws longer.

I have no doubt that Porsche can make an excellent car, I think the main question is will they live within the box of limitations that old-line automakers seem to tie themselves into when designing electric vehicles. The main area being self constraining thinking that shows up via limitations in battery costs and logistics. That's not car engineering that limits them, its supply chain inflexibility to really expand or secure a supply to the extent that Tesla has done for itself. As a result, makers like BMW builds these odd little toasters instead of anything like a Tesla or a regular car.

But Mercedes is not part of VW group

It seems fair to compare an automaker to another automaker. Declining sales among your competitors is a strong indicator of a difficult environment to sell into.

Unless you're saying the cited sales are sedans only, in which case I get your point.

The TCO of a Model 3 at a MSRP of $35k is comparable to what... a ICE car at $25k? Maybe less. That's assuming all the cash incentives are long gone at that point, and gas stays above $3.00. It's a bit uncharitable to call that "wildly expensive" unless your context is a new grad buying their first ever used car.

> Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.

Actually, we have very good data for longevity of the Model S batteries, and it looks beyond great. [1] Reliability of drive train and suspension remains to be seen for the 3 since it's so new, but the expectation is that maintenance is significantly cheaper for an electric vehicle due to so much reduced complexity.

> ...I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements...

Says almost everyone ever about whatever the current state of the technology is they are currently discussing? Materials science is constantly improving, and it would be shocking to me if they are making the 3 basically the same way 20 years from now as they do today.

> Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery...

And hasn't Tesla proven that they are able to consistently drive battery costs down and density and reliability up? Tesla has hinted at $100/kWh costs by the end of 2018. They are at forefront of battery production, and have consistently pushed the envelope since the 900lb, 53kWh battery in the Roadster which cost something like $600/kWh to produce. [2]

[1] - https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

[2] - https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-batteries

Advantage Tesla has is no legacy products of note. And most of the hard stuff they are trying to do is complex and expensive, but ultimately a solved problem.

Meaning there is no technical, economic, or skills related[1] reason that can't pull this off.

[1] Skills related. There are large numbers of engineers and techs that know how to work out Tesla's production issues. Meaning it's not like Tesla can't find people to fix these issues.

Japan has fooloshly bet on fuel cells. Not sure because they wanted to be "different" than Tesla like Nokia once thought with Windows Phone, or some other reason. They'll pay the price for that error big time. Toyota actually had one of the first EVs in recent times but they completely abandoned it for 15 years as the elctric RAV4 saw almost no improvement in all this time.

Please don't break the site guidelines while pretending not to break them.

Please do correct misinformation with facts, especially if you know a lot about a field where most of HN doesn't. As long as you're civil and can back up what you're saying, that adds value.

Hmmm, queer the downvoting on a simple multiplication...

Next year (March 2019) they will show the model Y, the smaller SUV based on the model 3 platform, but I doubt they'll start making them. The next year after that is the roadster. It's their secret plan that has been out on the web for years.

Nope. Sounds like volunteers did new-customer orientation:

http://www.thedrive.com/news/23779/tesla-accepts-volunteers-...

Sounds like a face-to-face version of the unpaid peer-to-peer "support" you get in some product support forums.

I'm very interested to see what Ford is coming out with in the 2020 time frame, with their fleet of "electrified" vehicles. I have a strong feeling that gas/electric hybrids which get decent electric-only range will be where the market is at (however they need to be targeting more than the 20-mile electric range they currently have). And I also like what I've read in some Ford interviews, where they aren't pushing electrification as an eco move, instead they plan on promoting it as a performance boost (i.e., the hybrid 2020 Mustang).

I would be more interested in the Kona and Niro which should have US pricing more in line with typical car buyers pricing ranges.

I have a 3, it is a great car, but it is also proof of how far EVs have to go before they can be the only car for many families. I think an EV is a great second car for all families. If you don't make any long trips then an EV might suffice. I did a long trip recently but I had the luxury to stop for the thirty-fifty minutes needed to get sufficient charge for my next stop or destination travel.

Audi was hyping up their E Tron SUV and then they released it and it wasn't all that impressive. It gets 248 miles of range on the WLTP with a 95 kWh battery which is average.

Tell that to Netscape. Point being, there's anecdotes in both directions. Only time will tell if Tesla's brand is truly industry defining or if it's just the vanguard of a broader industrial shift.

Don't forget the Supercharger network; seems like that's another big part of Tesla's first-mover advantage that any serious competitor will need to address at some point if they want to "catch up".

Not to mention that the battery business is a huge deal on it's own - potentially as big as car business

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/27/south-aus...

I don't think so either, but the hoops the big auto companies need to jump through are a lot lower. Once they have the design, they have the supply chains, assembly lines, and logics networks in place to go from 0 to 100 in months not years like Tesla.

Batteries are going to be an issue

> But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity.

This is ignorant and downplays the companies that have existed for decades.

Tesla isnt profitable, the rest of the auto companies are profitable.

These auto companies have already developed electric vehicles(see Bolt and Leaf) but demand doesnt cause them to produce Tesla amounts of electric vehicles. If they saw an increase in demand, they will use their billion dollar infrastructure to continue to produce vehicles.

To think there is any 'struggling to keep up' with Tesla for automotive is an ignorance of the automotive industry. Tesla is trying to survive, the established players are developing their own new technology.