The question isn't really whether you need dozens of machines, it's whether you can foresee eventually maybe needing dozens of machines.
Remember the bad old days when people said that relational databases were worthless because they "don't scale", that using Mongo and other NoSQL databases were practically a necessity for doing anything modern and "web-scale" because otherwise after you got your big break and you got popular you would need to keep up with all the new traffic and not crash? A lot of engineers have this tendency to worry about scalability long before it's ever a problem. Something about the delusions of grandeur incurred by people who got into engineering because they were inspired by great people building big things.
Starting out by running Kubernetes on a three-node cluster is actually the correct call for a small project if you can reasonably foresee needing to elastically scale your cluster in the future, and don't want to waste days or weeks porting to Kubernetes down the line to deal with your scalability problems that you foresaw having in the first place.
Again, that doesn't mean that Kubernetes is right for every hobbyist project. But there is definitely a (small) subset of hobbyist projects for which it is not overkill.