undefined | Better HN

0 pointssopooneo7y ago0 comments

When you say that coal consumption has already peaked in the USA, how do you know that? What is to say that next year we won't be using more coal per day than we are now?

0 comments

philipkglass7y ago

Coal consumption for power in 2017 was 36% lower than in 2008:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36812

Coal consumption in 2018 is on track for a 4% decline below 2017:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php

That same short-term outlook predicts a further 5% drop in 2019 over 2018.

It is at least physically possible that the US could consume more coal in 2019 than in 2018, though only a sucker would take that bet. But it's not even in the realm of possibility for the US to consume an all-time-high amount of coal in 2019, greater than 2008. Too many coal plants have already been shut down and scrapped since 2008. It takes years to build a new plant. There would be years of advance warning if the US were going to reach a new peak of coal consumption, because there would have to be a large wave of new coal plant construction first.

semi-extrinsic7y ago

Renewable energy saw a ~30% growth from 2008 to 2017, but in percentage points of the total energy consumption, that's only a 5%-point increase. The remaining 30%-point reduction in coal consumption was covered primarily by increased natural gas usage.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse