They'll also have a vastly improved super charger network, a mature software ecosystem, a mature direct sales/servicing model, and whatever else they dream up like Powerwall and other systems that can potentially add value to the whole. VW will just be scratching the surface by 2020 while Tesla will likely continue sprinting ahead.
More importantly, when EVs get popular we'll obviously see new power supply stations everywhere, and they may not comply with today's notion of a gas station. We'll see for example EV-specific stations such as rest areas or highway diners or shopping centers or autosilos or private parking spots that provide that service while drivers go on with their lives. These actually already exist, but as the number of EV cars is so small in comparison to ICE cars that they are barely noticeable.
I guess in the future Movie theatres, airports, malls, etc will be equipped with charging stations as an incentive to customers.
Although not being able to charge from home looks like an opportunity for someone.
VW hast way more: experience, capacity, people, money.
They can probably do that.
It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...and not just making them, but to make ones that are truly without compromise ("as good as Tesla").
These things aren't easy at all, though it might be tempting to think that it's just a matter of resources. Microsoft had all the resources in the world and still couldn't pull off Bing or Windows Phone.
To challenge your thinking a bit, consider this: part of the reason you can buy a Tesla in California or Texas today and not worry about range at all is the supercharger network that can take your Model 3 from 0 to 80% in 20mins. That's a multi decade infrastructure investment that VW hasn't even begun. And no, regular 3rd party chargers you see plopped in random malls and centers aren't even close. Not by a long shot.
It sure seems to me like the ICE car indistry biggies are in a kodak like moment.
From the love bug to just a bug.
[0] https://a16z.com/2018/09/17/hallway-conversation-tesla-disru...
Unfortunately, the current e-Golf is just a regular Golf poorly converted to electric, way too expensive and with not enough range.
That's going to be nearly impossible to avoid in the future. I do some software work for one automaker and every 2019+ model has a firewall on the data bus. It's not because they want to lock you out of repairing your car, it's because the pen testing and Defcon hacking has been accelerating over the past few years and they don't want headlines that say their cars can be hacked. That's bad for sales. They'll lose sales from guys like you too of course -- your concern is certainly valid, but more people are concerned about the security of their car than being able to repair it themselves.
I read stories that Tesla disabled cars that have been repaired too much, and that you have to have them certified and unlocked again. They always claim security and user experience grounds, but of course the main motive is maximizing profit. Apple does this, John Deere does this, basically every company who can afford to does this.
I wish they would be honest enough to say first, yup, we do this so we can charge more money for repairs and spare parts. Second, we have no other choice because our competitors do this too and we have to maximize profit. And then I hope third we get strong right to repair laws as a result. I heard in the US the situation for cars is actually not too bad as the manufacturer cannot void your warranty for installing third party parts, but there is always room for improvement.
I don't need the ability to "tinker" with my car. But in the end, I buy it, and I want it to be 100% "loyal" to me and not to the manufacturer - like a stupid hammer, or a bicycle. That should be a legal principle IMO.
Personally, I don't like the term range anxiety, it sounds like a fighting term from the gas car industry and also doesn't take people's worries seriously. My problem is completely different: If there was no Model S, I would be totally happy with an e-car with 140 miles range. But if I can get another car for a similar price with twice the range, I'm going to buy that instead.
It shows to me that VW (like other established brands) is not doing the technically possible, but half-hartedly quickly making an electric car, just so they also have one. The e-Golf AFAIK uses the same platform as most VW (and Skoda etc.) cars, where they crammed the batteries in there where there was space. Teslas are designed from ground up for electric, and the whole car underbody is basically a battery.
VW's e-golf is advertised as having a 140 mile range. It's noticeably lower than Tesla's advertised range of 200 mile but as it's a city car designed for the european market I'm not sure it's relevant. I mean, in some european countries that's more than enough to drive through the entire nation.
I don't get it, why everybody start to build car like a smartphone now days?
"We will take a currently winning product X and deliver 2X by some future date Y."
Imagine if competitors actually said:
"We will first catch up to X by some date before Y. Then we will hit 2X by Y".
Not that they actually plan to catch up. In May 2018 their official plan was to make 1 million electric cars by 2025 (https://electrek.co/2018/05/29/vw-electric-vehicle-demand-eu...).
Tesla is already making ~300k per year, is on track to make ~500k within 9 months in Fremont, has already started building China plant that will add 250k within 2 years and 500k within 4-5 years, has already telegraphed building European plant for another 500k cars and will most likely start building Model Y in Nevada starting sometime 2020.
Bottom line is that Tesla will likely reach 1 million cars a year by 2022, 3 years before VW.
Maybe VW will speed up their plans but batteries don't grow on trees. Recently we learned that LG Chem wants Audi (part of VW group) to pay 10% more for batteries because demand outstrips the supply (https://electrek.co/2018/10/22/audi-e-tron-delay-software-lg...).
Tesla has been designing battery packs since Roadster days and building Gigafactory 1 since January 2015 so almost 4 years to build battery capacity for ~400k cars. As far as I know VW has no battery R&D and relies for the most important and most expensive component of ev car on 3rd party suppliers who also supply the same thing to their competitors and apparently are so swamped by demand that they can raise prices while Tesla is aggressively bringing the price of batteries down.
And it remains to be seen if they are able to create software that is as refined as Tesla's.
Took me a while to figure out that scrolling on this page is broken unless you enable javascript.
Looks like the reason is that it needs Googles amp code to function.
It's hillarious that Google gets away bloating the web with crap and selling us that as a way to make it more lightweight.
Flagging it for this reason. I think we should not support AMP here on HN.
If you were able to read it without js, the reason is probably that HN meanwhile changed the link to the non-amp version.
Also, what will happen to the price of ICE cars if EV's start catching up?
If VWs electric vehicles really are as good as Tesla's by 2020, it will be more a condemnation of Tesla than praise for VW.
