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0 pointsbloak7y ago0 comments

According to The Economist, Feb 23, reporting on a YouGov survey in December, 49% support Remain, and that number hasn't changed much. However, the 51% who don't support Remain support a variety of different proposals. To me it seems highly unlikely that any particular proposal would beat Remain in a choice between those two options. Remain is the Condorcet winner.

That "61%" is probably about right for what would you'd get for a two-way referendum between Remain and No Deal, or between Remain and May's Deal, but if you were to repeat the Remain-Leave referendum (which would be an insane thing to do - it was madness the first time), I wouldn't be surprised if Leave would win again, by a narrow margin.

"Well, if you knows of a better 'ole go to it"?

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gpderetta7y ago

A proper followup referendum should be something like this.

A) Should we leave?

B) if we leave, should be we leave even without a deal with the EU?

I.e. two (or more) distinct questions. If you vote no at the fort question, you still get to express your opinion on the second.

avar7y ago

Doing it this way screws over people whose first choice is a no-deal Brexit, but who would rather stay as a full EU member than accept May's "not quite EU" deal.

This is why you do ranked choice voting, which covers any combination of such opinions.

Jarmsy7y ago

Indeed, it was Remain vs multiple incompatible alternatives presented as one (and frequently misrepresented as a totally impossible pick and mix of these incompatible options).

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