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0 pointsfuzz4lyfe6y ago0 comments

They disagreed with me about housing prices as well a decade or so ago as well.

0 comments

And I presume you made an utter killing by putting your money where your belief were? Because if you didn't I don't believe you in the slightest.

geofft6y ago

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

That someone failed to make money on the market doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong, it may just mean nobody gave them a pile of money they could afford to risk.

selectodude6y ago

The Big Short is a fantastic read due to watching somebody who you know is right, and knows that he's right, almost get wiped out because the market teetered on the edge of the precipice for over a year.

readams6y ago

With something like inflation over a 10 year period this isn't true. In ten years either it was lower than you thought or it wasn't, and you can make lots of money based on the spread of inflation-protected and non-inflation protected assets.

baroffoos6y ago

Being right doesn't mean very much. A broken clock is right twice a day. If I say something will go up I have a 50% chance of that being true. That doesn't mean anyone should take my advice on the future.

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fuzz4lyfeOP6y ago

I was about 13 years old I didn't have much capitol to invest. I just put together the two pieces of the puzzle that housing prices were rising much faster than wages and that a products price can't continuously rise faster then the consumers ability to pay for that product. I guess the "smart money" missed that.

Now we have a bunch of presidential candidates that tell me they are going to print money all day long and a bunch of people who "know better" telling me that won't cause inflation to spike. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

JamesBarney6y ago

Before we saw a huge inflation, we'd see very low unemployment then inflation would uptick to 2%. And in the current interest rate environment we could probably use an inflation rate closer to 4%.

RhodesianHunter6y ago

No candidates are talking about printing money, just spending it in different ways.

bsanr26y ago

>Print money Taxing isn't printing.

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JamesBarney6y ago

That was different. If you think inflation is about to sky rocket it's easy to make a bet that pays off if that happens.

It was much more difficult for housing. The Big Short tells a story about how even if you knew housing was over valued it was very difficult to short, and the ones who did almost lost everything.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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Fede_V6y ago

And I presume you made an utter killing by putting your money where your belief were? Because if you didn't I don't believe you in the slightest.

geofft6y ago

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

That someone failed to make money on the market doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong, it may just mean nobody gave them a pile of money they could afford to risk.

selectodude6y ago

readams6y ago

baroffoos6y ago

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fuzz4lyfeOP6y ago

JamesBarney6y ago

Before we saw a huge inflation, we'd see very low unemployment then inflation would uptick to 2%. And in the current interest rate environment we could probably use an inflation rate closer to 4%.

RhodesianHunter6y ago

No candidates are talking about printing money, just spending it in different ways.

bsanr26y ago

>Print money Taxing isn't printing.

1 more reply

JamesBarney6y ago

That was different. If you think inflation is about to sky rocket it's easy to make a bet that pays off if that happens.

It was much more difficult for housing. The Big Short tells a story about how even if you knew housing was over valued it was very difficult to short, and the ones who did almost lost everything.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse