> The world changes all the time. Why am I condemned to hold on to obviously unsound beliefs for all eternity?
Normally when you update a probability, how much you change it is based on the strength of the evidence. If your probability of something is ultra-low, and you see an event that's a million times more likely if that thing is true, your new probability is roughly a million times higher. And for a probability that's sufficiently close to 0 or 1, that pit is basically impossible to climb out of.
Do you have an alternate method to suggest? What's the calculation you would use? Note that "I'm seeing this with my own eyes" should only give you so much change, because you might have accidentally taken a whole bunch of hallucinogens.
> But I have no evidence that there even exists such a thing as a Seventh Dimension etc.
If you're setting a hard cutoff based on the silly Seventh Dimension stuff, then you still fall for the version where I come to your house and sign a document giving you a giant pile of money. That's how mortgages and business deals work every day after all.
> How about the statement "Hillary Clinton is the President of the United States"? What probability should I assign to that? I know that the PotUS is Donald Trump. Does Cromwell's Rule mean that I have to believe that Hillary Clinton is the PotUS at least a little, because otherwise I will never be able to believe it if she ever gets elected president?
Not for that reason. But you have to factor in the chance that you got confused, or your brain is failing to make new memories and it's actually 2022, or you just woke up from a really detailed dream about the wrong president.
