I've backed a dozen or so, and I've got about a 50% hit rate of anything coming through. The failures are always interesting. Trying to guess, ahead of time, which ones are failures (or scams) - is an education into itself. They always seem so earnest in the beginning.

But, yeah - go into kickstarters with your eyes open. Particularly with people who don't have a track record of deliverying - that, in my mind, is the best signal around. If they've come through more then 3 or 4 times in the past, that's a good indication they may come through on this one.