Probably not very. I get the distinct feeling that the last few essays were very light on content/interesting insights, and did well on name value alone.
Would be interesting to actually test that to be honest. Get Paul Graham to set up another site under a fake identity, post the next say, three essays there, then submit 'em to HN under the same identity and see the stats.
In some cases it’s because the territory is mostly mapped by his previous work. “Novelty and Heresy” was a belated sequel to “What You Can’t Say”, for instance.
OTOH, seeing pg write essays again pleases me in much the same way that one might be pleased if their favorite long-defunct rock band started recording a new album.