Thinking about it, I guess I assume US sources (nearly regardless of source) to be very unreliable on areas with clear policy bias, e.g. Iran & Israel. Given that I think I just assume "I have no idea, really" on a region like that if I don't have some more personal experience. I suspect this is due to earlier surprises, when my expectations were off by quite a bit, leading me to question the sources.
Of course this isn't US specific.