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Given what we're seeing in other countries, that seems doubtful.Do you have a source for this? You're waving away the work of hundreds of thousands of people in public health. Do you know something about epidemiology (and interventions) that epidemiologists don't?
You can't understand a complex scientific field by reading headlines as a layperson. You don't know what people are doing to prevent the spread and you don't know what they could be doing if elected officials were cooperating with scientists.
Here are some obvious things that reduce the spread of viruses, some of which were mentioned in the articles I linked, which you seem not to have read.
- Free health care. In countries where primary care, patients will submit themselves for testing sooner, allowing precautions to be taken before they infect anyone else.
- Not allowing the Japanese cruise ship passengers into the US, as the CDC recommended.
- Discouraging hoarding of masks, especially by healthy people. Cloth masks are most useful when worn by people who are already infected, not by healthy people.
- Deploying testing kits quickly and providing support for the clinics getting them up and running.
- Quarantines, which also need human administration.
Nothing you've written contradicts my original thesis, which is supported by actual experts and bipartisan officials in the US: that this illness will kill more people and have greater economic impact because the Trump administration (and Xi regime, for that matter) mishandled the preparation and early response.