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0 pointsyodsanklai6y ago0 comments

Mortality rate in China is overestimated because they tested primarily the most severe cases. From [1]:

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Also there were 3000 death in China, and new cases are declining. In France alone (20 times less people), it's common to have 10000 death annually from the flu. Of course, China enforced strict containment measures and we don't know the exact numbers, but overall the death toll seem rather small. Why should we expect much worse in the West? And finally, it's not sure, but some experts expect the virus to decline with warmer temperatures. So overall, I'd say there's room for optimism.

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dougmwne6y ago

The reason we should expect worse in the West is because China put hundreds of millions of people under some level of quarantine control. If we don't enact those kinds of measures, we can expect higher numbers of infections and deaths.

I do hope that the death and hospitalization rate ends up being lower and am awaiting studies based on places like the towns in the Italian red zone where they tested every resident and the Diamond Princess. If the rates end up anywhere near the initial estimates, the hospital capacity situation could become very serious unless we enact quarantines.

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0 pointsyodsanklai6y ago0 comments

Mortality rate in China is overestimated because they tested primarily the most severe cases. From [1]:

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

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dougmwne6y ago

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