I hear a lot of "it's just the flu...", "it's just the media"... etc.
What accounts for this difference, and who is more in touch with reality? It is the case that I don't work in tech any more, so maybe tech-centric communities err more on the "expect the worst" side. But that begs the question of why?
So people are unperturbed because it's unlikely to be serious for them, but they should worry about the effect it will have on the population at large.
We have not seen the impact it has on hospitals. People will start to get scared once they see the hospitals getting full and the care workers starting to burnout, given the 10+% hospitalization rate. Unfortunately by that time most of us will be forced to stay home.
Look at what is happening in Italy. Only after they were forced to stay home have they finally taken the situation seriously.
The CDC has said that most of us will eventually get it. We just hope we don't all get it so fast that the hospital system is overwhelmed.
Someday it'll be like in "the boy who cried wolf", but what can I do.
The actions one can take with regards to SARS-CoV-2 are limited. One can avoid being in crowded places close to others when possible, and practice careful hygiene. A minority can work from home. Americans can avoid public transit, but most urban dwellers outside the USA cannot.
Only time will tell. The only thing I am certain of is that traditional news and even twitter to a certain extent has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes, long before coronavirus was a thing. One of the few industries that will absolutely win during the next few weeks and months is news, so yeah, they don’t have the best incentives to calm people’s fears.
See also:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/four-thing...
Then a relative called me this evening to tell me about people wheeling tp out of Costco by the pallet. I was at a different store an hour ago to and the entire bath tissue isle was empty. This is in Denver. My team lead and boss (both in Toronto) were joking about it happening there too.
The only thing I can think of is that nobody wants to go into a full blown panic, yet there’s a whole lot of pent up anxiety about the situation. Somehow buying loads of tp is a kind of coping mechanism. Somebody started it, other people followed, now no there’s no tp.
My concern is that such widespread odd behavior is just the slightest hint hint of what a panic would bring.
And some people on the internet like to feel strong by putting down others for taking reasonable precautions against the prospect of forced quarantines or neighborhood lockdowns.
I am not panicking or obsessing about it, though, and I think people perceive that as being unconcerned. But it's not. I take it seriously, and engage in reasonable protective behaviors, but I am not afraid. Why? In part because there is little reason for me to be actively afraid (yet), and in part because fear is unhelpful and counterproductive.
Could this be a "black swan" event? Sure, it could. But we're not there yet, and losing sleep over it won't change the likelihood of it becoming that.
That said, what I see coming out of the US government, and particularly Trump's statements, make it much more difficult to remain calm.
So in this case, the fact that the authorities are starting to panic a bit, is reassuring to me.
Also, aside from not going out to big events myself, it's not like there's much I can do. It's not "quit your job and head to the hills and live off the land" time, yet, and other than washing my hands, not going to music festivals, etc. there's not a lot I can do.
[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavir...
[1] https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-and-the-new-hoax/
[2] Check their official twitter accounts, press conferences, etc.
Media, as always, cares about clicks and will publish sensational articles. In China the virus has peaked and the president of China declared victory over the virus today. We are 2-4 weeks behind China.
It is estimated the virus will peak in 2 weeks from now. So next 2 weeks get ready for catastrophic headlines. Then eventually daily new reported cases in Italy etc will start dropping and panic will be over.
I think I have contracted the Coronavirus but since I am a healthy 31 years old person I have fought it off and defeated it.
I have no idea how scary this is because the media cries wolf all the time. Everyone cries wolf but life still goes on. So when something actually bad does happen, everyone's been desensitized to it. It's even worse today now that newsjacking is a thing.
I would ask you this:
1. Which part of the world you hail from 2. The people you talk to..are they mathematically challenged or immersed in the world of numbers(doesnt necessarily have to be tech/IT)
Use your judgement
I'll follow the money, and not conspiracy theories.
Rudolf Abel, Bridge of Spies (2015)
1. In most places, the absolute numbers are still very low. If you look at it like "X in a million", X is still low, so it feels like there is no need to panic.
2. Continuing the above, if you compare X to something else, like "getting hit by a car" or something similar, it feels rational to not worry about Corona too much, since you're also not worrying about other things (you're used to the risks).
3. People like Trump are comparing it to the flu.
4. For most healthy, non-smoking people under 50, the risks are relatively low based on the data. Kids seem to be pretty safe from it.
5. Based on official numbers it's contained in China: more people are coming out of the disease than going in, the net number is negative, active cases is declining. [2]
However, 1. + 2. above are only re-assuring if you use the "independent events" mental model, which everyone defaults to. Eg. if you get hit by a car or you get cancer, that doesn't increase my chances. So if the probabilities are low (X in a million), and you and me getting it is independent and the probability is not increasing, then the mental model works, and it's reasonable not to worry. But this mental model is wrong here, because this is viral growth. It's spreading exponentially outside China [1]. So you getting it increases my chances of getting [eventually]. We are not indenependent. It's like the flu in this sense, but it spreads more efficicently and kills more people, so 3. above is also a wrong.
On point 4 above, let's hope this is the case. But, everyone has older/sick relatives..
On point 5 above, it'll be interesting to see how liberal democracies respond, whether they can pull the aggressive measures like curfewing the population that China did. Also, China has a lot of economic resources, not sure how smaller/weaker economies will hold up.
In conclusion, I don't think most people realize that for the next ~3 months (imo for a lot more time), their lifestyles will be drastically different. Until now we were in "1st world yolo" mode, now it'll be: no going to work, no schools, no travel, no socializing, no gym, no events.. A lot of the things we work for, live for, will be put on hold. See China, Italy.
[1] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/, look for "total cases outside of china", it's a beautiful exponential, the kind that startuppers would kill for... "viral growth"
[2] see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/, look for "active cases in china"
They can't handle reality. Cattle, to be cliché.
Are all of these 10% hospitalized were hospitalized because they are in a serious condition or because of the panic?
The fact that the panic puts a stress on the healthcare system does not mean the panic is justified.
I’m ok with the panic if the data says this is serious. So, again, do we have such data?
So either: You didn’t actually look Or you looked and came to the conclusion that an order of magnitude higher mortality rate was not significant.
So what number would make you think this is worse?
