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0 pointsfulafel6y ago0 comments

The WHO conclusions have been widely challenged.

The cruise liner and the 3000 pop Italian village are the well studied exposed populations so far I think and they indicate a big asymptomatic percentage.

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ummonk6y ago

The cruise ship showed a ~50% symptomatic rate, so any stats based on symptomatic patients are probably only off by a factor of 2.

Note that both South Korea and China outside Wuhan do extensive contact tracing and testing of people an infected individual can be determined to have interacted with, so they pick up a good deal of asymptomatic cases too.

easytiger6y ago

The cruise ship demographic is extremely relevant.

joe_the_user6y ago

Can you show me a link to what percentage of those exposed in the ocean linear needed hospitalization? I haven't seen any direct discussion of this and that the situation in question. Sure many can be asymptomatic but that doesn't imply the symptomatic group doesn't tend to get very ill.

Edit: I should have said "a large enough group of asymptomatic to push the fatality and sickness rate way".

Yes, there can a majority asymptomatic but that doesn't mean that 20% of the overall don't wind-up needing serious medical attention also.

Hopefully, you can read the comment I replied to and see the context

fulafelOP6y ago

Sorry, on mobile, hopefully someone else can dig it up.

joe_the_user6y ago

I've read several articles and none talk about the hospitalization rate. Two people died, which akin to the fatality with medical care seen elsewhere. That would seem to imply a similar rate of getting sick since the disease pattern is that with reasonable care, only small-ish portion of those getting sick die.

I mean, understand. Lots of people asymptomatic, a few quite ill, 1% die, sounds not terrible but it's very, very bad for it's health care overwhelm effect.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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ummonk6y ago

The cruise ship showed a ~50% symptomatic rate, so any stats based on symptomatic patients are probably only off by a factor of 2.

easytiger6y ago

The cruise ship demographic is extremely relevant.

joe_the_user6y ago

Edit: I should have said "a large enough group of asymptomatic to push the fatality and sickness rate way".

Yes, there can a majority asymptomatic but that doesn't mean that 20% of the overall don't wind-up needing serious medical attention also.

Hopefully, you can read the comment I replied to and see the context

fulafelOP6y ago

Sorry, on mobile, hopefully someone else can dig it up.

joe_the_user6y ago

I mean, understand. Lots of people asymptomatic, a few quite ill, 1% die, sounds not terrible but it's very, very bad for it's health care overwhelm effect.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse