Well, while we're in the realm of discussing tail risks - what is the risk that if your assets exceed FDIC insurance limits, the bank you have them in defaults?
Since we're discussing a negative rate environment, presumably this is a stressful time for the economy making this more likely than history would indicate. If you have your assets at multiple institutions to stay under the limits, what's the probability of one of those failing, and what's the probability the FDIC fails?
Depending on how negative rates are, the math can quickly turn those probabilities you outlined above into risks I'm willing to take.