Birx continued, "is how important behavioral change is, and how amazing Americans are at adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes." "That's what's changing the rate of new cases, and that's what will change the rate of mortality going forward," she said.
He tweeted today how Fauci and the mainstream media glossed over how the models already took into account the interventions:
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1248244146571116545
There had to be tons of uncertainty in a) how well people comply with the guidelines and b) how effective that compliance is. It certainly doesn't seem crazy to me more data would lead to revised values for those factors.
They could be more effective than originally expected. It could also just narrow the prediction interval--I'd bet that a lot of the "millions dead" stuff is reporting the high end, rather than the most likely outcome.
Fwiw Michael Burry, someone who has earned the right to be listened to in the face of collective thinking, is strongly arguing for the "disease is not as severe as thought".
0: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predict...
If you kept the model exactly the same, you'd nevertheless get tighter and tighter estimates (i.e., reduced uncertainty and a lower upper bound) as more data comes in. This is just how statistics works.
Moreover, we're presumably learning stuff as we go (e.g., putting patients prone seems to work better than on their backs), so the survival rate itself is (hopefully) not stationary.
Has anyone seriously suggested that the US’s measures are being carried out anywhere near “almost perfectly”? Quite the opposite, there’s been lots of concerns voiced that people aren’t taking this seriously.
> The revised model predicts up to ~127k deaths, which is certainly less, but not egregiously so
It’s a nearly 40% reduction!
