Crypto going mainstream will happen. It will happen when debit cards to crypto accounts will pay merchants, and the merchants receive USD. AND when the rates are tiny.
Compare and contrast open source's relative success vs. whether the Four Fundamental Freedoms / GPL model itself actually succeeded.
I haven't seen a metric by which BTC is considered a "killer app" (in any space other than "How can I buy things / conduct transactions my local government forbids or tightly regulates," and even that use case is falling by the wayside as the tools for LEO to datamine the blockchain for webs of criminal transaction activity have caught up...), and it's been around long enough that I think we can generally flag the BTC experiment specifically as "tried, found wanting." In this current global pandemic crisis, you'd think trust in central governments would be at an all-time low and people would be shifting their resources into BTC, and that doesn't appear to be happening at any grand scale.
The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for non- reversible services.
It’s the community that pivoted to something else.
PS: Two different non reversible transactions sets up the two generals problem which bitcoin does not solve. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Generals%27_Problem
https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_f...
For examples of this see LIBOR/"Eurodollar"
The cost if it doesn't work out is damage to the trust in the system and the stability of the dollar in general, which is the thing the Fed pathologically seeks to avoid.
And as the country that can mint the currency the IMF designates other countries' international debts in, the US doesn't generally see itself in need of further strengthening the USD's position in the world.
(Interestingly, when I lay it all out like that and add it up, the US monetary policy looks like a big business's bureaucratic system, the kind that'd be ripe for disruption by a startup. Of course, it's not quite so simple when we're talking nation-states and not Silicon Valley ventures).
That’s because governments have the privilege of establishing itself as a monopoly. They control the rules of the marketplace via regulations.
What I find really surprising is that the government hasn't created a set of standardized APIs for financial transactions, flowing through traditional web/cloud/mobile tech. From a tax collection/enforcement perspective, it would seem to be in their interest to make "smart money" with convenient P2P digital transactions. Given the transparent corruption between Washington and banking institutions, I wonder if they don't want to risk being disinter-mediated, or if no politicians have even tried to pursue such a thing (the closest being Warren's plans to add banking services to USPS, which I think is a great idea).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
after reading the article ... still "No".
The Wikipedia article you link to states a study of ~3000 articles where the most common answer is infact yes.
I have no doubt after the Trump administration they are all taking a long, hard look at building up their military power to be self-sufficient, but those timelines are measured in decades, not months. Anyone who thinks that moving away from the dollar is a simple matter of currency is naive, delusional, or both.
Which means the only alternative is attempting to supersede the dollar by pegging to it but not actually being backed by it. Which, again, will never happen.
