"Pick React and stick to it" is the exact parallel to your "pick Sun and stick to it". Were you not there to see how often SunOS and Solaris updates broke things, too? But those updates were largely optional, and so are these. If you prefer React 15's class-based component model, you can pin the version and stick with it. You won't have access to new capabilities that rely on React 16 et cetera, but that's a tradeoff you can choose to make if it's worth your while to do so. You can go the other way if you want, too. The same holds true for other frameworks, if you use a framework at all. (You probably should, but if you can make a go of it starting from the Lions Book, then hey, have a blast.)

I agree that VC money is ultimately poison to the ecosystem and the industry, but that's a larger problem, and I could even argue that it's one which wouldn't affect JS at all if JS weren't fundamentally a good tool.

(To your edit: granted, and React, maybe and imo ideally plus Typescript, looks best situated to be on top when the whole thing shakes out, which I agree may be very soon. The framework-a-week style of a lot of JS devs does indeed seem hard to sustain outside an environment with ample free money floating around to waste, and React is both easy for an experienced dev to start with and supported by a strong ecosystem. Yes, led by Facebook, which I hate, but if we're going to end up with one de facto standard for the next ten years or so, TS/React looks less worse than all the other players at hand right now.)