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0 pointsgridlockd5y ago0 comments

There are several European countries that right now have no discernible excess mortality despite having hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases and thousands of deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Outside of NY/NJ, the excess mortality in the US is within 20% of the normal rate, no different than the variance expected from a bad/mild flu season.

If you were to transpose those cases back to February, what would you have seen in the death statistics? Nothing suspicious at all. There could have been hundreds of thousands of cases that have gone unnoticed, because there wasn't any testing - and that's assuming a mortality rate of over 2%. If the mortality rate is lower than 0.4%, as some studies suggest, it could've been millions of cases.

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dilyevsky5y ago

You do realize we’ve been waiting it out at home since early march here in CA? The only real reason why no of deaths is not through the roof yet. If you divide number of confirmed (!) covid deaths in nyc by total pop it’s already over 0.2%

Edit: actual calc i did is 13k confirmed deaths in nyc / 70% herd immunity magic number of 8.4 mil

gridlockdOP5y ago

That's besides the point.

Let's look at Germany from that EUROMOMO map. Despite all the measures, they have had over 150k cases and over 6k deaths (a death rate of over 2%), but it doesn't show up on the graph.

All the deaths that have happened in Germany in the past weeks could've happened months earlier and it wouldn't have shown up either.

This disproves the idea that there couldn't have been any mass infections earlier, because we would've seen that from excess deaths. That's the point I am making. The only way to know would've been through testing, but there wasn't any testing then.

rjtavares5y ago

You can only disprove this idea: "we can't contain this with measures - including massive testing and quarantine".

You can't really disprove the idea that "without measures excess mortality will always happen".

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DanBC5y ago

> There are several European countries that right now have no discernible excess mortality

This is because there are lags in the data. You need to wait a few more weeks (and for some countries it'll be months) for the data to come in and be reported.

gridlockdOP5y ago

I don't know the extent to which this is true, but even then, we do know the average deaths in previous years and we do know the actual deaths reported and can get an idea of high how the discrepancy could've been.

In the case of Germany, there would be 12,000 weekly deaths on average, versus about 2000 weekly deaths due to COVID-19 at the peak - that is within the variance caused by the seasonal flu. It would not have been a suspicious rise.

DanBC5y ago

> I don't know the extent to which this is true

It's very easy to search for this information. Here's one link: https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving...

> In the case of Germany, there would be 12,000 weekly deaths on average, versus about 2000 weekly deaths due to COVID-19 at the peak - that is within the variance caused by the seasonal flu. It would not have been a suspicious rise.

If you're comparing covid-19 to flu you must count them using the same method, and you're not doing that here. Here, for covid-19 you're using "deaths after confirmed positive" but for flu you're using "all cause mortality". When you use the same method to count covid-19 and flu deaths you see much higher rates of death for covid-19.

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0 pointsgridlockd5y ago0 comments

There are several European countries that right now have no discernible excess mortality despite having hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases and thousands of deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Outside of NY/NJ, the excess mortality in the US is within 20% of the normal rate, no different than the variance expected from a bad/mild flu season.

0 comments

dilyevsky5y ago

Edit: actual calc i did is 13k confirmed deaths in nyc / 70% herd immunity magic number of 8.4 mil

gridlockdOP5y ago

That's besides the point.

Let's look at Germany from that EUROMOMO map. Despite all the measures, they have had over 150k cases and over 6k deaths (a death rate of over 2%), but it doesn't show up on the graph.

All the deaths that have happened in Germany in the past weeks could've happened months earlier and it wouldn't have shown up either.

rjtavares5y ago

You can only disprove this idea: "we can't contain this with measures - including massive testing and quarantine".

You can't really disprove the idea that "without measures excess mortality will always happen".

1 more reply

DanBC5y ago

> There are several European countries that right now have no discernible excess mortality

This is because there are lags in the data. You need to wait a few more weeks (and for some countries it'll be months) for the data to come in and be reported.

gridlockdOP5y ago

DanBC5y ago

> I don't know the extent to which this is true

It's very easy to search for this information. Here's one link: https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/03/31/counting-deaths-involving...

1 more reply

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