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0 pointsJPKab5y ago0 comments

Maybe because the protesters don't want handouts from agencies which have done a very poor job dispersing said handouts already.

I can go to a superstore which is deemed essential because it sells groceries and buy all sorts of items that specialty stores aren't able to sell me because they're closed. any member of the public can enter these superstores with no screening whatsoever. The small business owners would screen customers much more effectively than a large store would.

It's almost like we've taken steps that are arbitrary in nature and aren't actually scientifically valid because we don't have enough data on this virus and how it actually spreads. these arbitrary measures are then doubled down upon by the local governments in the name of preserving their authority and looking good to the press.

what really bugs me is the level of certainty that people seem to have about this. I'm coming from a position of uncertainty. Anyone being honest right now is doing the same.

Look at your comment: you are absolutely certain that a dubious at best chance of economic survival for small businesses is being traded against a certain chance of a public health crisis. I don't think you're being honest with yourself with a level of certainty like that. You're just like the rest of us flying blind, but you are just positive that you are right and that businesses should be closed to support your preconceived notions.

It's real easy to do that when you have a job that allows you to work remotely. It's not costing you anything just let those Walmart shopping losers go out and deal with the unemployment system. In the meantime a percentage of all of our tax dollars goes to paying off interest on the national debt and that percentage is going to have to increase as a result of this.

I'm not a moron or a science denier. I'm fine with taking on debt to the degree necessary to maximize public health. But there are multiple dimensions to public health not just this virus. My brother's business is in jeopardy and it was growing fast before this pandemic hit. Now I'm deeply concerned that he's going to fall back to an addiction that he beat 10 years ago. That's a tiny story that represents something that's going to happen in this country when young people who would otherwise be unaffected by the virus or going to suffer economic calamity.

By the way my brother always voted Democratic. Due to the false partisan positioning of opening versus reopening pushed by the media, he is now never going to vote Democrat again and plans to vote for Trump in November. He voted for Clinton last time think about that.

In the meantime people on keyboards who were going to vote for Biden anyway are now pushing policies that are going to hand this election to Trump. Maybe the elderly will carry Biden since many appear to be switching their votes. But when they're dead in a few years the young people who have lost their businesses will still be voting. It's not going to go well.

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mehrdadn5y ago

I can't tell if you're ranting or just upset at all this or at the fact that HNers commenting are on topics that you feel they're disconnected from (though I'm sorry about your family's situation), but your reply is quite incoherent. I can't reply to every point, but I can't even make sense of the fact that you're calling me out for being so certain that reopening proposal comes with a lot of... uncertainty in giving people their income? Especially compared to just handing them money? So your position is I should be less confident in the uncertainty? Because you yourself are absolutely certain about... the uncertainty? What?

At a high level though: surely you understand not everything is equally uncertain here, and that not everything is being flown blindly? We have like 200 other countries in the world to observe and draw conclusions from, both socioeconomically and medically. We have ourselves to draw conclusions from, given the preceding shutdown and its effects. And we have experts who know and analyze quite a bit more than either you or me being quite united in their opinions. You can't seriously be so confident that their opinions are just coin tosses in a vacuum, come on. Especially not when you're the one preaching uncertainty!

JPKabOP5y ago

Sorry if I came off as incoherent. I'm definitely tired of seeing keyboard warriors comment on things that they are obviously not connected to.

"At a high level though: surely you understand not everything is equally uncertain here, and that not everything is being flown blindly? We have like 200 other countries in the world to observe and draw conclusions from, both socioeconomically and medically. "

Yes, you are 100% correct, and I appreciate you taking a charitable view of my comment.

The issue I see here is that the 200 countries we can observe provide a massive stream of data that then gets applied through a tribal filter.

Those who advocate for continued, strict shutdowns look at Sweden and compare it to Finland/Norway negatively. Those who advocate for moderated, easing shutdowns for economy look at Sweden and compare it to other countries with internationally connected economies in Europe in a positive framing.

I see this constantly playing out, with endless justifications/explanations for why "I'm still right."

"They had more testing, and they are better people and can be trusted to wear masks, so no, we're not like South Korea"

"The Swedes are culturally less individualist, and can be trusted more"

"Georgia and Texas are going to be disasters. It hasn't been a full 2 weeks, but just wait, the incubation period..."

apostacy5y ago

The cost of the shelter in place order is doing more harm than good. When the dust settles, I am convinced that more people will have died as a result.

I'm on pretty solid ground here. The costs of poverty and economic collapse are arguably better researched than pandemics.

And it is hard not to be disgusted by the attitude of many people on HN, who are least affected by this.

Having some relatives in that part of the country, I would compare this to the dust bowl. A complete economic collapse that will over the next year require millions of people to flee to cities, as they have absolutely nothing left. What are people supposed to do when every single business has gone from their town?

But people here like to sneer at these "stupid rednecks" that are clearly not as smart as us, right?

mehrdadn5y ago

> When the dust settles, I am convinced that more people will have died as a result. I'm on pretty solid ground here.

> But people here like to sneer at these "stupid rednecks" that are clearly not as smart as us, right?

Wow. You're putting a lot of words in people's mouths.

That's also quite a bit coming from someone who just claimed such confidence in his own prediction of the future. I assume this means you're more of an expert in this than the ones in the government we're all familiar with and who are predicting the opposite?

But in case you're actually interested in what actual experts (not me) think about the whole "minimizing harm" thing, you might enjoy reading/listening to this, which evaluates at what point it's worth shutting down the economy. It might shake your solid ground: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843

eropple5y ago

"Economic collapse" is, one, overstated, and two, not likely with functioning economic policy. The answer to this one really is actually simple. Just write the checks. "But but but debt--" Debt is denominated in our own currency and it's the reserve currency of the world, that debt is fucking fictional. Just write the checks. "But but but undeserving poors--" No. Just write the checks.

I realize, of course, I am shouting into the wind. I understand that it isn't actually about the economically underprivileged, because we'd write the checks. And it isn't actually about the Small Business Owner--service industry small business owner checking in, doing fine, thanks--being threatened, because we'd write the checks. It's about something much darker and much more mendacious and the rhetoric that is so readily adopted by useful idiots who want their haircuts or whatever.

We will have to come to grips with the understanding that in many parts of modern America it is more acceptable to have Grandma drown in her own goddamned lungs than it is to just write the checks.

And that is the downfall of civic society before all else.

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aisengard5y ago

The shelter in place order mostly hits around the margins. Most people are staying home on their own volition - government orders notwithstanding. I started staying home a few weeks before the official lockdown went into effect.

The economy was going to collapse no matter what - that's not because of government giving an order to stay home, it's because the reality is that the virus infects everyone and leads to horrific health deterioration. Furthermore, our government has provided our economy nearly zero safety net to account for something like this.

Pandemics are scary. Suffering severe health deterioration or maybe even dying are existentially scary. No amount of shutting our ears and screaming "HOAX!" is going to change how most people view the risk - it only increases the chaos and lengthens the crisis. You want the economy to come back? Then figure out how to make people feel safe, which means getting rid of the virus, because no amount of weird charts or saying "it's just the flu" is going to work now that people realize how bad it really is. Ignoring the problem isn't a solution.

1 more reply

pnutjam5y ago

And suddenly conservatives were concerned about poverty.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsJPKab5y ago0 comments

Maybe because the protesters don't want handouts from agencies which have done a very poor job dispersing said handouts already.

what really bugs me is the level of certainty that people seem to have about this. I'm coming from a position of uncertainty. Anyone being honest right now is doing the same.

0 comments

mehrdadn5y ago

JPKabOP5y ago

Sorry if I came off as incoherent. I'm definitely tired of seeing keyboard warriors comment on things that they are obviously not connected to.

Yes, you are 100% correct, and I appreciate you taking a charitable view of my comment.

The issue I see here is that the 200 countries we can observe provide a massive stream of data that then gets applied through a tribal filter.

I see this constantly playing out, with endless justifications/explanations for why "I'm still right."

"They had more testing, and they are better people and can be trusted to wear masks, so no, we're not like South Korea"

"The Swedes are culturally less individualist, and can be trusted more"

"Georgia and Texas are going to be disasters. It hasn't been a full 2 weeks, but just wait, the incubation period..."

apostacy5y ago

The cost of the shelter in place order is doing more harm than good. When the dust settles, I am convinced that more people will have died as a result.

I'm on pretty solid ground here. The costs of poverty and economic collapse are arguably better researched than pandemics.

And it is hard not to be disgusted by the attitude of many people on HN, who are least affected by this.

But people here like to sneer at these "stupid rednecks" that are clearly not as smart as us, right?

mehrdadn5y ago

> When the dust settles, I am convinced that more people will have died as a result. I'm on pretty solid ground here.

> But people here like to sneer at these "stupid rednecks" that are clearly not as smart as us, right?

Wow. You're putting a lot of words in people's mouths.

eropple5y ago

We will have to come to grips with the understanding that in many parts of modern America it is more acceptable to have Grandma drown in her own goddamned lungs than it is to just write the checks.

And that is the downfall of civic society before all else.

2 more replies

aisengard5y ago

1 more reply

pnutjam5y ago

And suddenly conservatives were concerned about poverty.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse