Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities (opens in new tab)

(twitter.com)

14 pointsjtdaugh5y ago16 comments

16 comments

The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source:https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page).

Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don't want them there either. Assuming we need 60% of the population to recover in order to achieve herd immunity, and assuming we somehow isolate all of our 65+ year olds from the virus, that would mean almost 2M hospitalizations in the US.

jtdaughOP5y ago

I can't find hospitalizations broken out by underlying illnesses, but if among each age bracket we assume the % of deaths associated with underlying illness holds as the % of hospitalizations associated with underlying illness, then we get a "healthy under 65" Hospitalization Rate of 0.3% to 0.5%.

Under 65:

7.4M people

1.55M infected

26,000 hospitalizations

4,548 "healthy" hospitalizations (16% of deaths under 65 have no comorbidities. Using same rate here).

800k-1.2M infected w/o comorbidities depending on "healthy rate"

4,548 / 1M = 0.45%

vannevar5y ago

Good point. I was assuming using the rate per capita would be best case, but you're right, you'd also need underlying illness rates. I think the point stands though, that hospitalization rates for otherwise healthy patients under 65 is an order of magnitude higher than their mortality rate.

rpiguy5y ago

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity.

I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily toward age and whether or not you are in a nursing home. Seniors outside of nursing homes are doing an order of magnitude better than those in homes.

Over half of US counties have no COVID deaths. The number are skewed terribly by NY/NJ as well.

Someone5y ago

Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities.

Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 deaths. That’s four times the number of yearly traffic deaths, double the number of overdose deaths (both already high for comparable countries)

Those 160.000 might not return every year, but if this behaves as a typical virus, it could mutate enough to return every few years.

rpiguy5y ago

Well the mortality difference by age is stunning:

According to CDC data, 81% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are people over 65 years old, most with preexisting conditions. If you add in 55-64-year-olds that number jumps to 93%.

For those below age 55, preexisting conditions play a significant role, but the death rate is currently around 0.0022%, or one death per 45,000 people in this age range.

Below 25 years old the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 0.00008%, or roughly one in 1.25 million.

jtdaughOP5y ago

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.

1 more reply

jtdaughOP5y ago

NYC's data defines underlying illness as "disease, asthma, heart disease, a weakened immune system, obesity, diabetes, kidney disease, liver disease and cancer."

As I point out in the thread, even estimating 50% of people under 65 have an underlying illness (lets say thats 25% under 17, 50% 18-44, and 75% in 45-64 to roughly get us there) moves the "Under 65 healthy IFR" only up to 0.09%.

chinesempire5y ago

> the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

If that's true (and I don't think it is) that's a serious problem.

BTW smoking is not a comorbidity, it's an habit that could or could not develop a comorbity given enough time.

cramey5y ago

All substance abuse, including smoking, is a comorbidity[1]. While it's hard to find exact statistics, the US Department of Health and Social Services estimates that 50% of non-elderly Americans have a pre-existing condition[2]. Those conditions don't necessarily represent a comorbidity, but a nasty systemic infection like Covid-19 leaves little space for non-overlap.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comorbidity

2: https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-...

LandR5y ago

I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.

chinesempire5y ago

I think the only ones assuming here are those who assume that he underestimated the number of people with comorbidity.

I believe you are underestimating how bad US society is in regards to healthcare and how much they overestimate some condition (like blood pressure related hearth diseases) to avoid reimbursing insurance bills.

jtdaughOP5y ago

Assume you mean who "do" have comorbidities?

1 more reply

jtdaughOP5y ago

Spreadsheet with data and sources:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bKbRccSVz-u5HtoLK0zb...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

16 comments

vannevar5y ago

jtdaughOP5y ago

Under 65:

7.4M people

1.55M infected

26,000 hospitalizations

4,548 "healthy" hospitalizations (16% of deaths under 65 have no comorbidities. Using same rate here).

800k-1.2M infected w/o comorbidities depending on "healthy rate"

4,548 / 1M = 0.45%

vannevar5y ago

rpiguy5y ago

You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity.

Over half of US counties have no COVID deaths. The number are skewed terribly by NY/NJ as well.

Someone5y ago

Those 160.000 might not return every year, but if this behaves as a typical virus, it could mutate enough to return every few years.

rpiguy5y ago

Well the mortality difference by age is stunning:

According to CDC data, 81% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are people over 65 years old, most with preexisting conditions. If you add in 55-64-year-olds that number jumps to 93%.

For those below age 55, preexisting conditions play a significant role, but the death rate is currently around 0.0022%, or one death per 45,000 people in this age range.

Below 25 years old the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 0.00008%, or roughly one in 1.25 million.

jtdaughOP5y ago

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.

1 more reply

jtdaughOP5y ago

NYC's data defines underlying illness as "disease, asthma, heart disease, a weakened immune system, obesity, diabetes, kidney disease, liver disease and cancer."

chinesempire5y ago

> the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

If that's true (and I don't think it is) that's a serious problem.

BTW smoking is not a comorbidity, it's an habit that could or could not develop a comorbity given enough time.

cramey5y ago

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comorbidity

2: https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-...

LandR5y ago

I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.

chinesempire5y ago

I think the only ones assuming here are those who assume that he underestimated the number of people with comorbidity.

jtdaughOP5y ago

Assume you mean who "do" have comorbidities?

1 more reply

jtdaughOP5y ago

Spreadsheet with data and sources:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bKbRccSVz-u5HtoLK0zb...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse