Shutdowns prevented 60M coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds (opens in new tab)

(washingtonpost.com)

37 pointsdjoshea5y ago12 comments

12 comments

"Received: 22 March 2020" - direct from the study cover page at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference....

States imposed lockdowns between March 21 and early April. Someone want to explain to me how a study submitted before the lockdowns were issued (nevermind had time to actually have an impact) "found" those results?

sauwan5y ago

It must be a typo. March 22nd was a Sunday, where May 22nd was a Friday. It seems unlikely that it would take over 2 months to accept it, considering so many other articles are being rushed to publication in fractions of that time.

ETA: also, charts in that publication also show data collected from April, so unlikely they had data from the future.

sukilot5y ago

Study suggests, not finds. Simulation models can't "find" facts. Observation finds facts.

undersuit5y ago

Didn't the study of the simulation model find facts about the simulation model?

rogerkirkness5y ago

So far.

djosheaOP5y ago

Exactly. I believe the 60 million infections delta was estimated for April 6th (figure 4), so the counterfactual would be considerably worse as of today.

sukilot5y ago

"So far" meaning "might save more later" or "only postponed, not prevented"?

LorenPechtel5y ago

By now we have learned that masks + distancing is enough to stop this (Drive R0 below 1, it will die out in time.) If we were serious about doing these things the cases--and deaths--would be prevented, not merely postponed.

oarabbus_5y ago

The latter. That's always what "flattening the curve" has meant. The total area under the curve (i.e. total unique infected individuals) stays about the same.

1 more reply

madmaniak5y ago

Simulacrum.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

12 comments

cheald5y ago

"Received: 22 March 2020" - direct from the study cover page at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference....

sauwan5y ago

ETA: also, charts in that publication also show data collected from April, so unlikely they had data from the future.

sukilot5y ago

Study suggests, not finds. Simulation models can't "find" facts. Observation finds facts.

undersuit5y ago

Didn't the study of the simulation model find facts about the simulation model?

rogerkirkness5y ago

So far.

djosheaOP5y ago

Exactly. I believe the 60 million infections delta was estimated for April 6th (figure 4), so the counterfactual would be considerably worse as of today.

sukilot5y ago

"So far" meaning "might save more later" or "only postponed, not prevented"?

LorenPechtel5y ago

oarabbus_5y ago

The latter. That's always what "flattening the curve" has meant. The total area under the curve (i.e. total unique infected individuals) stays about the same.

1 more reply

madmaniak5y ago

Simulacrum.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse