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0 pointstathougies5y ago0 comments

> So the models of exponential growth was unfounded and it follows more a natural gompertz curve.

The models of exponential growth were always unfounded. Exponential growth would have you believe that in a few short months, a sum larger than the entirety of the human population would get the virus. We knew then that it was ridiculous. The question wasn't if it was exponential or gompertz, but what the coefficients were.

Those who parroted the exponential curve were just trying to use scare tactics to drive clicks to their websites.

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dalore5y ago

At the start the only person trying to say it was a gompertz curve was Nobel Prize winner Professor Levitt. Everyone was using the Imperial College model which did say exponential growth and of which the governments around the world used to make policy. So to turn around and say now the models were unfounded is not useful as they were the models that were followed to make huge policy decisions. So it wasn't just people driving clicks, but governments making drastic changes to peoples lives based on these flawed models.

https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the...

beagle35y ago

There were quite a few others; it just happens that Michael Levitt is the highest profile person on that list, and essentially the only one to therefore be globally quoted;

But there are iirc ex surgeon-general equivalents in at least Germany and Israel and independents like Karl Deninger who had been saying essentially the same, with data to back themselves up, since March.

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