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0 pointstreis5y ago0 comments

Where it falls on the cause of death list doesn't really mean much. 3/4s of all deaths are caused by Cancer, Heart Disease, and Other. The remaining quarter of deaths are spread out over 8 causes in roughly equivalent numbers. Covid being high on that list ultimately doesn't mean much.

The better number to look at is percent increase in deaths. Worst case scenario we're looking at a 3-10% increase for a single year. Obviously not good, but that's amount of increase is not going to change the course of society.

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AlexandrB5y ago

> Obviously not good, but that's amount of increase is not going to change the course of society.

Are you old enough to remember Sept. 11, 2001? That changed a lot after far fewer deaths! Moreover, there's not much US political leadership can do[1] about deaths from Cancer, Heart Disease, etc. COVID 19, on the other hand...

[1] I mean besides something like Medicare for All. But let's ignore that for the moment since it's harder to draw a straight line from those policy decisions to deaths.

treisOP5y ago

>Are you old enough to remember Sept. 11, 2001? That changed a lot after far fewer deaths

It did and it didn't. It started a couple wars and dominated public discourse until Obama was elected. But did it fundamentally change our society? I'd say no. It was a defining event in the lives of a lot of people. There was a temporary change in patriotism and concern about security. But today that effect is pretty much gone and as a society we're essentially the same as we would have been without 9/11.

In 20 years Covid will be the same. For those that lost a loved one or lost their career it will be a defining event. But for society? It won't really matter.

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