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0 pointsjcranmer5y ago0 comments

Well, how much does it take to create a cloud of poisonous gas that is sufficiently concentrated to induce lethality and also spreads reasonably quickly that people can't escape it?

Bret gives the example of the Tokyo terrorist attack that released sarin in several crowded subway cars... and killed 12 people. Grenades would have killed far more people far more quickly... and that's the point: chemical weapons are far less effective at delivering death than explosives are.

Edit: Wikipedia gives 7mg/m³ for a lethal concentration for one of the Novichok agents, 28mg/m³ for sarin.

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Retric5y ago

Dispersal is a well studied problem: https://fas.org/programs/bio/chemweapons/delivery.html

But to simplify, cluster mutinous are more effective vs troops than a single large detonation. Similarly, rather than starting from a single source you want to spread the weapon from a large number of points. By comparison to 7mg/m3 a 1 metric ton weapon could ideally cover a square kilometer to a thickness of 30m and concentration of 30mg/m3.

Notably, exposure time plays a major role in lethality so covering a wider area makes it much harder to escape from.

mcguire5y ago

How long does the gas cloud last, in various wind conditions?

Retric5y ago

Really depends on local conditions, but as a benchmark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack

Estimates of the death toll range from at least 281 people[3] to 1,729.[14] and 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms in 3 hospitals supported by MSF[5]

However, it was considered safe enough for the UN to inspect the area the next day.

throwaway_pdp095y ago

Please provide a link when quoting from elsewhhere.

Also you're badly overlooking the obvious. In full "...killing 12 people,[1][2] severely injuring 50, and causing temporary vision problems for nearly 1,000 others"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_subway_sarin_attack

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0 pointsjcranmer5y ago0 comments

Well, how much does it take to create a cloud of poisonous gas that is sufficiently concentrated to induce lethality and also spreads reasonably quickly that people can't escape it?

Edit: Wikipedia gives 7mg/m³ for a lethal concentration for one of the Novichok agents, 28mg/m³ for sarin.

0 comments

Retric5y ago

Dispersal is a well studied problem: https://fas.org/programs/bio/chemweapons/delivery.html

Notably, exposure time plays a major role in lethality so covering a wider area makes it much harder to escape from.

mcguire5y ago

How long does the gas cloud last, in various wind conditions?

Retric5y ago

Really depends on local conditions, but as a benchmark https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack

Estimates of the death toll range from at least 281 people[3] to 1,729.[14] and 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms in 3 hospitals supported by MSF[5]

However, it was considered safe enough for the UN to inspect the area the next day.

throwaway_pdp095y ago

Please provide a link when quoting from elsewhhere.

Also you're badly overlooking the obvious. In full "...killing 12 people,[1][2] severely injuring 50, and causing temporary vision problems for nearly 1,000 others"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_subway_sarin_attack

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse