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0 pointsyojo5y ago0 comments

I threw out some numbers to set a baseline of “this can’t go on forever.” I don’t pretend to know when it starts to transition, or the speed of the transition.

The fact that the rate of growth will someday slow means assumptions you make about your 401k may or may not hold if we happen to be at the wrong point on the curve.

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ivalm5y ago

But humans also don’t have infinite demand on production. If we have a sufficiently high amount of production per capita (ie we are post-scarcity) then growth becomes irrelevant (especially if overall population isn’t growing, which with current trends seems reasonable). At that point the only thing is to ensure that output distribution is sufficiently equitable. We can then have millions of years of stable happy humanity with zero growth.

lovecg5y ago

Would the world of today seem “post-scarcity” to a medieval peasant? I don’t think humanity will ever have “enough” — it’s just not in our nature.

ivalm5y ago

I don’t agree. I don’t think we currently have enough stuff. As a techy in the US I make more than most, but there are still many material things that I can’t quite afford/have to limit myself. However, if production was 100x what it is now then perhaps I would be able to afford them. Post scarcity is at a production level far greater than current.

Also, higher production doesn’t mean higher natural resource consumption —- dematerialization is real. My phone satisfies my needs far more than a landline could but requires far less natural resources.

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xchaotic5y ago

The rich will not give away their stuff. You’d probably have to give away 90% of your wealth to be level with the rest of the world. Also it is communism and it doesn’t work in practice.

ivalm5y ago

Current world is not post-scarcity. However, there is a point where marginal value of “extra” stuff is essentially zero. When everyone can be at that level is what I mean by post-scarcity.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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ivalm5y ago

lovecg5y ago

Would the world of today seem “post-scarcity” to a medieval peasant? I don’t think humanity will ever have “enough” — it’s just not in our nature.

ivalm5y ago

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xchaotic5y ago

The rich will not give away their stuff. You’d probably have to give away 90% of your wealth to be level with the rest of the world. Also it is communism and it doesn’t work in practice.

ivalm5y ago

Current world is not post-scarcity. However, there is a point where marginal value of “extra” stuff is essentially zero. When everyone can be at that level is what I mean by post-scarcity.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse