Is there a chance that in 10 years everybody is using native mobile apps on desktops?
Chuckling...
I do agree, however, with the idea that some things ought _not_ be apps, especially things that are dead simple, for which it _truly is_ easier to develop a web application.
SwiftUI is nice, but needs a lot more years until it reaches the level of React.
Android libs are a joke.
(I write enterprise React applications last 6 years, and used to work with WinForms before that.)
IMO the biggest driver already is and will be app store/platform policies. Fundamental hardware constraints are secondary.
PWA trumps mobile apps — until or unless it can be articulated why a PWA/hybrid app won’t work, but that is the small minority of app cases.
In what sense? Most people use mobile apps than browse the web through mobile -- and most surf from mobile vs PC.
(The fact that said mobile apps might be web-based is an implementation detail).
ARM has a huge problem with compatibility and secrecy.
Buy a random intel machine .... will it run Windows and Linux? YES.
Buy a random ARM device..,, will it run Linux? Maybe, probably not, even if it does, probably there’s problems and issues caused by the CPU vendor keeping aspects of its design secret.
ARM is a very very long way from replacing Intel.
Chromebooks run android apps today.
Windows computers will run android apps with BlueStacks or a similar emulator.
Until mobile apps can do EVERYTHING that desktops apps do, desktop apps are here to stay.