The site code and content itself is worth very little. The history, traffic, and back links are the value.
Even if the site was copied or even improved on, it would take somewhere between 6 to 24 months to reach a comparable level of traffic assuming no black hat strategies are used.
That's 40 grand that could be used on traffic to the new site
1. 4x ~$4600 annual revenue = $18400, a far cry from 40 grand.
2. I seriously doubt that this site will be making $0 in four years. My vote is for the over by a lot.
3. Most folks who would purchase it at a 4x annual revenue multiple would have a clear plan to increase traffic and/or monetize the traffic more efficiently than the current owner does.
Speaking for myself, buying existing traffic is like printing money for me. Most people do not monetize their traffic very well at all. That said, getting white hat traffic from scratch is a slow and tedious process.
