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0 pointsnabla95y ago0 comments

Not just in the US. Also in Europe and most of the developed world. Violence peaked in 80's - 90s and then started to decrease dramatically.

Lead–crime connection is the strongest explanation. Past lead exposure functions as a predictor for criminal activity. Crime starts to drop in every country after the use of leaded gasoline is forbidden.

New evidence that lead exposure increases crime https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/06/01/new-evide...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

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azernik5y ago

More interestingly, we also have cross-national natural experiments, where different countries banned lead gasoline at different times, and the timing of drops in the crime rate is pretty spot-on

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/08/murder-rate-d...

strenholme5y ago

Another possibility, discussed at depth in Freakonomics, is that reducing unwanted children reduced crime rates. There is some controversy about this, but it may be one of the factors: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_e...

nabla9OP5y ago

That possibility can't be the main explanation.

Allowing abortion in the US did not change anything in other countries. Crime rates have dropped in every country shortly after leaded gasoline was phased out.

watwut5y ago

Yeah, but given choice, I will go for scientific explanation and for what sociologists say then for pop book that was not even peer reviewed.

em5005y ago

Here are the peer reviewed papers from one the authors of the pop book:

https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/116/2/379/1904...

https://law.stanford.edu/publications/the-impact-of-legalize...

strenholme5y ago

The peer-reviewed science says that legalized abortion accounts for about 20-30% of the crime reduction we have seen. (Reference: The Wikipedia article I already linked to in the grandparent post)

b1125y ago

While the lead theory may indeed be true, one other thing has changed in almost all areas of the world.

Birth rates.

And with declining birth rates, comes a decline in the number of youth, meaning "more of the population" is of an older age. Men are typically at their most aggressive when young adults, and those which have started families, have a different perspective on life.

Note: not saying the above is the cause, but I do believe it to be a valid theory.

edit: it is also plausible that multiple things cause one effect.

watwut5y ago

Young people are less violent, less likely to get pregnant as teens, drink less and take less illegal drugs then they use to - all per capita.

mschuster915y ago

> less likely to get pregnant as teens

That's caused by providing at least somewhat decent sexual education in schools, although the US is still lacking in mandating sex ed or mandating medically accurate sex ed (=banning "abstinence only").

1 more reply

morpheos1375y ago

Maybe this has something to do with it?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-testosterone-levels-dc...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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azernik5y ago

More interestingly, we also have cross-national natural experiments, where different countries banned lead gasoline at different times, and the timing of drops in the crime rate is pretty spot-on

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/08/murder-rate-d...

strenholme5y ago

nabla9OP5y ago

That possibility can't be the main explanation.

Allowing abortion in the US did not change anything in other countries. Crime rates have dropped in every country shortly after leaded gasoline was phased out.

watwut5y ago

Yeah, but given choice, I will go for scientific explanation and for what sociologists say then for pop book that was not even peer reviewed.

em5005y ago

Here are the peer reviewed papers from one the authors of the pop book:

https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/116/2/379/1904...

https://law.stanford.edu/publications/the-impact-of-legalize...

strenholme5y ago

The peer-reviewed science says that legalized abortion accounts for about 20-30% of the crime reduction we have seen. (Reference: The Wikipedia article I already linked to in the grandparent post)

b1125y ago

While the lead theory may indeed be true, one other thing has changed in almost all areas of the world.

Birth rates.

Note: not saying the above is the cause, but I do believe it to be a valid theory.

edit: it is also plausible that multiple things cause one effect.

watwut5y ago

Young people are less violent, less likely to get pregnant as teens, drink less and take less illegal drugs then they use to - all per capita.

mschuster915y ago

> less likely to get pregnant as teens

1 more reply

morpheos1375y ago

Maybe this has something to do with it?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-testosterone-levels-dc...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse